Where will the oil price go next?

On 12 November last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) declared that, thanks to 'fracking' - blasting dense underground rocks apart to release fossil fuels within - the US would overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world's biggest oil producer by 2017. You might have thought this would be extremely bearish for the price of light crude oil. Greater supply leads to falling prices, after all. Yet as it so often seems to, the reverse happened. Oil headed higher almost non-stop for more than two months after the announcement was made.