1.03.2011

My thoughts

Regarding the main items discussed in the before four posted articles I believe:

  • U.S. unemployment situation will not dramatically change;

  •  The only way Real State in U.S.can improve is with subsidies from the government, so forclosures will continue increasing;
  • Municipal debt problems could be a potential source of future crisis;
  • I do not expect more QE because there appears to be signals of inflation;
  •  I don't believe China will change its currency exchange rate policy unless it should be for Chinas convenience;
  • China will continue their strategic acquisitions (resources and agricultural commodities); 
  • EU will face more sovereign debt problems;

  • Initially stock market will over react;
  • With uncertainly gold price will increase;
  •  Upon crisis there were two different ways to follow: ortodoxial one and that we are following. If Bernanke has the ability to understand when it is needed to switch to the ortodoxial way (i.e when inflation rate needs increase in interest rates to acomodate) may be there is a chance for sucess, if he fails alll was a matter of time;
  •  Us is far of hyperinflation. To better understand how it works see http://www.hiperinflacion-uca.com.ar/descarga.php.

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