9.30.2010

Ben Davies CEO of Hinde Capital

Rising Star Ben Davies gives a tremendous interview regarding his brand new blog piece exclusively for KWN titled, “The World Monetary Earthquake.” Ben lays out the case for why the revaluation of the Chinese currency can lead to a collapse of currencies. Davies ran trading for RBS Greenwich Capital in London where he managed a macro portfolio. Ben Davies and Mark Mahaffey, former colleagues from RBS Greenwich Capital, established Hinde Capital in early 2007, primarily to focus on the precious metals and the commodity sector.

How to Profit From the Metal That’s More Precious Than Gold

Gold set another new record yesterday (Wednesday), closing above $1,300 an ounce for the second-straight day. The London Bullion Market Association - at its annual conference this week - projected that the "yellow metal" would advance to $1,450 in the next year. With the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) all having near-zero interest rates and moving toward more "quantitative easing" - pumping money into the global economy - the case for gold looks more convincing than ever. Yet there are other precious metals that stand to benefit from the same inflation-hedging-related demand that's driving gold to record after record. One particular metal right now looks to be an even better investment than gold. It is favored by Chinese investors and is benefiting from soaring industrial demand. Unlike gold or silver, this particular precious metal has risen only about 6% this year, and remains well below its 2007 peak. The metal I'm talking about is platinum.

How American cities could cause the next financial crisis

When it comes to bankrupt or near-bankrupt states, the focus right now is all on Europe. We've got Ireland figuring out what to do about Anglo-Irish Bank, with the final bill put at €29.3bn this morning (although it could hit €34bn in a 'severe hypothetical stress scenario'). And we've got the usual rumblings about Greece and Portugal and all the rest just waiting in the wings. But maybe everyone's looking in the wrong place. Because it's not just little 'peripheral' euro-economies that are in trouble. In fact, some far, far bigger economies – some of them among the world's largest – are in just as big a mess. We're talking about the largest states in the US.

Ireland strains to bail out its banks

Ireland is paying a heavy price for the reckless mistakes of its banks. Up to €50bn (£43bn) to be precise, or one third of the country's entire economy.

ECB hawks spook debt markets

Eurozone experts are increasingly worried that the European Central Bank (ECB) is moving too fast in pulling the prop from under the financial systems of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, risking a repeat of the premature tightening in mid-2008 that ended in grief.

House Lashes Out at China

The House of Representatives by a wide margin passed legislation to penalize China's foreign-exchange practices, sending a powerful warning to Beijing but risking a response that could harm U.S. companies and consumers.

9.29.2010

The World Monetary Earthquake, The Dash From Cash

Globally GDP has been anaemic since the crisis first arose in 2007. The inevitable conclusion of most countries today is that the best way to extricate themselves from the current mess is to shift effective demand away from imports onto domestically produced goods. The preferred method is competitive currency devaluations.

Shut Down the Fed (Part II)

I apologise to readers around the world for having defended the emergency stimulus policies of the US Federal Reserve, and for arguing like an imbecile naif that the Fed would not succumb to drug addiction, political abuse, and mad intoxicated debauchery, once it began taking its first shots of quantitative easing. My pathetic assumption was that Ben Bernanke would deploy further QE only to stave off DEFLATION, not to create INFLATION. If the Federal Open Market Committee cannot see the difference, God help America.

U.S. Dollar Is `One Step Nearer' to Crisis as Debt Level Climbs, Yu Says

The U.S. dollar is “one step nearer” to a crisis as debt levels in the world’s largest economy increase, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank. Any appreciation of the dollar is “really temporary” and a devaluation of the currency is inevitable as U.S. debt rises, Yu said in a speech in Singapore today.

Fernandez Makes Peso the Only Loser in Emerging Markets: Argentina Credit

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s efforts to weaken the peso are working, while policy makers in emerging markets from Brazil to South Africa fail to curb currency rallies.

The best way to profit from a currency war

Are the printing presses being warmed up in the Bank of England's basement? On Monday night, we had Charlie Bean telling savers to get out there and spend. Now we hear that Adam Posen – the newest member of the Bank's rate-setting committee – is calling for more quantitative easing (QE). Andrew Sentance – the sole Monetary Policy Committee member calling for higher rates – looks increasingly alone. The only consolation for anyone worried about the effects of further QE is that we're hardly alone...

Greenpeace projects slogans onto nuclear power stations in Germany

A Greenpeace activist projects the slogan "Nuclear power station Grundremmingen: nuclear power harms Germany" onto a cooling tower of the nuclear power station Gundremmingen in southern Germany. Greenpeace activists projected similar slogans onto 12 atomic power reactors in Germany, protesting against the decision of the German cabinet to extend the country's reliance on nuclear power

AOL merger was 'the biggest mistake in corporate history', believes Time Warner chief Jeff Bewkes

Jeff Bewkes, the chairman and chief executive of Time Warner, has accepted that Time Warner's merger with AOL was "the biggest mistake in corporate history", but said it had helped the company focus on its strengths.

Bank of England's Adam Posen calls for more quantitative easing

The Bank of England should restart the printing presses and pump more money into the economy to prevent a "lost decade" of low growth and high unemployment, one of its senior policymakers Adam Posen has said.

9.28.2010

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) Gold Storage Open

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) has announced the opening of its Singapore precious metals storage facility. The precious metals storage facility, located in a free-trade zone at the city-state’s Changi international airport, is reported to accommodate transactions having physical settlement in which J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is involved, including physical settlement of Singapore Mercantile Exchange gold futures contracts.

World Oil All Liquids Supplies

Another interesting graph from Ed Steer

US National Debt and the Presidents responsible for it

Interesting graph explanatory by itself.







Four Emerging Markets Making Waves Around the World

I'm focused like a laser beam on emerging markets this year, because there is much more at play than just relative strength. This is where the economic growth in the world is occurring.

Brazil warns of world currency war

The world is in an "international currency war" as governments manipulate their currencies to improve their export competitiveness, said Guido Mantega, the Brazilian Finance Minister.

Anglo Irish Bank's debt rating cut to almost junk status

The debt rating of Anglo Irish Bank was cut to almost junk status on Monday amid fears that the cost of bailing out the lender has cost more that a fifth of Ireland’s GDP.

Lloyd's of London profits halve after record catastrophe claims

Lloyd's of London, the world's leading specialist insurance market, said first-half profits more than halved after paying out catastrophe claims relating to the BP oil spill and Chilean earthquake.

OECD calls for more austerity in Portugal

Portugal must brace for fresh austerity to bring the budget deficit under control and stem capital flight, despite signs that political consensus is unravelling.

9.24.2010

Facebook film 'takes over' MySpace

The Social Network, the film about the founding of Facebook, took over MySpace’s entire homepage yesterday with a huge advert.

Douglas Flint to be HSBC chairman, Michael Geoghegan to leave in radical reshuffle

Douglas Flint, finance director of HSBC, is set to replace Stephen Green as chairman of Europe's biggest bank in a radical restructuring that will see chief executive Michael Geoghegan leave and his role taken up by Stuart Gulliver, the head of investment banking.

Investors' nerves are raw – no wonder gold keeps climbing

Stock markets slipped back a bit yesterday. Gold went up a bit. And the dollar rose. It wasn't a rout for stocks by any means. It could just be put down to profit-taking. But investors could be forgiven for feeling just that little bit more nervous.

Barrick Gold CEO: Expect More Volatility

Gold held near record highs Thursday, sitting just below $1,300 an ounce [XAU=X 1297.0 3.50 (+0.27%) ], and Aaron Regent, president and CEO of Barrick Gold [ABX 46.71 --- UNCH (0) ], the world’s largest producer of the precious metal, told CNBC to expect more price action to come. “There are a lot of price supportive factors, which should support the price of gold and encourage it to go higher,” he told CNBC.

Ireland faces double dip, mulls restructuring of junior bank debt

Irish borrowing costs have surged to a post-EMU record after Ireland's recovery buckled over the summer and Dublin said creditors of Anglo Irish Bank may be asked to "share" losses, a warning to bondholders that the dam may at last be breaking on debt restructuring in the eurozone.

Irish Opposition Leaders Are Pushing For Anglo Irish To Default On Its Bondholders

Ireland's Finance Minister has had to come out and rebuff calls to let Ireland's troubled Anglo Irish Bank to default on its bondholders. He has called the prospect of Irish banks defaulting 'unthinkable

Trade fears as China denies restricting exports to Japan

The Chinese government has denied blocking the export of valuable rare earth minerals to Japan, a move which has the potential to escalate a diplomatic dispute between the two countries into a matter of international economic security.

Amid Tension, China Blocks Vital Exports to Japan

Sharply raising the stakes in a dispute over Japan’s detention of a Chinese fishing trawler captain, the Chinese government has blocked exports to Japan of a crucial category of minerals used in products like hybrid cars, wind turbines and guided missiles.

Starbucks to hike prices on 'labor intensive' drinks

Starbucks drinks, long considered symbols of Americans' penchant to overspend, are about to get even pricier. The coffee giant said late Wednesday that it will raise the price of "labor-intensive and larger-sized" beverages because of soaring prices of green arabica coffee beans.

Global food risk from China-Russia pincer

World food supplies are caught in a pincer as China becomes a net importer of corn for the first time in modern history and Russia's drought inflicts even more damage than expected, raising the risk of a global grain shock in 2011.

The US dollar is ready to plummet

The US dollar is staring over the edge of the precipice and is ready to plummet. Rather than hand the dollar a lifeline, the FOMC in its announcement yesterday pushed the dollar further over the edge.

Distribución del ingreso: la bandera K que se estancó en los ‘90

La inflación ubica a la desigualdad argentina en un nivel similar al de la época menemista, según los especialistas. Además, la capacidad de compra de la asignación universal por hijo (AUH) cayó un 17% por la suba de la canasta básica de alimentos en el primer semestre de 2010. Por qué el crecimiento económico del país no es suficiente para las clases bajas.

9.22.2010

Markets are at a major turning point – so what's coming next?

There is a chance we are at a turning point in the markets, right here and now. And quite a significant one at that. We are in one of those periods where everything is rising together – gold, silver, stocks, commodities – as the dollar falls. But virtually every index that I look at is now sitting either at an important level of support (a point where it typically stops falling), or resistance (a point where it finds it difficult to rise further).

Inflection point

Last week’s move by the dollar price of gold into new high ground is an event of considerable importance; an importance barely appreciated by the vast majority of market observers – hardly even by gold bugs. They miss the point by slavishly following the interpretation of markets by charts to produce their price forecasts. This myopic approach is little more than guess-work and is inadequate analysis, because there are powerful forces at play. The two that are most relevant are the economic background and the market dynamics for gold, both of which have arrived at important inflection points, where everything seems about to take on a new direction.

The Public Assistance Cycle

Even before the financial crisis struck, many people were living from paycheck to paycheck, hurt by stagnant incomes, the rising cost of essential goods and services, and widespread risk-shifting by employers. Now that the "recovery" is well underway, a post at the Wall Street Journal's Real-Time Economics blog, "Watching Wal-Mart at Midnight," suggests that a growing number of Americans are having to cope with an even more depressing reality

Payrolls Decrease in 36 U.S. States, Led by Michigan

Payrolls dropped in 36 U.S. states in August, led by Michigan, indicating the labor market will take time to rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s. Employers in Michigan cut 50,300 jobs last month, the biggest drop since January 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Texas and California rounded out the three states with the biggest job losses. Joblessness climbed in 27 states, with Nevada reaching a record 14.4 percent rate, the highest in the nation.

QE2 in round trillions

Here is a back-of-an-envelope guess by David Greenlaw at Morgan Stanley on what the Fed can expect from a second blitz of bond purchases, or `Shock & Awe’ as he calls it.

Dollar sinks and gold soars as Fed signals it wants to stoke inflation

Investors and traders dumped the dollar and sent gold to yet another record high Tuesday, taking their cues from the Federal Reserve’s apparent readiness to drive interest rates down further and inflation up. The markets’ verdict was clear: They believe Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is willing to debase the dollar to avoid the risk of the economy falling into deflation.

9.21.2010

Why grain prices could be heading higher – permanently

Cotton hit a 15-year high yesterday; it's the latest in a line of 'soft' commodities to hit fresh highs. Commodity prices are generally volatile. And softs are, if anything, even more unpredictable than their 'hard' peers. There's the weather for one thing: too hot, too cold, too wet – all can take their toll on the supply side.

Will The Fed Fall Back on Treasury Purchases to Fuel Economic Growth?

Faced with a faltering recovery, the U.S. Federal Reserve today (Tuesday) will again consider ramping up purchases of Treasuries, a policy known as quantitative easing, to promote growth.

Austerity plan helps UK retain top AAA rating

Moody's retained its top AAA rating on the Britain saying the country can withstand economic challenges, giving the Coalition's austerity plans a boost and lifting shares.

UK property prices fall for third month

Property asking prices fell for the third month in a row during September as estate agents continued to have record levels of unsold stock on their books.

Vince Cable: banks heading for 'train crash' if they pay bonuses without lending

Vince Cable, the Business Secretary, has warned banks they could be heading for a “train crash” if they award large bonuses while small businesses struggle to get credit.

9.19.2010

Property Developer: The ECB Is The Only Thing Stopping Spain From Becoming The Next Dubai

The desperate state of Spain's property market is well known, but what isn't is perhaps the extent to which it has yet to fall, and how much it might impact banks holding property loans on their balance sheets.

Lord Levene goes shopping for banks and Lloyds is top of his list

Lord Levene's start-up cash shell NBNK is eyeing British retail banking assets up for grabs after the financial crisis.

China leads the way economically – but will it ever lead the world?

Tianjin is a city buzzing with confidence and construction. It's a contrast to Western austerity, writes Jeremy Warner.

US economy fears as consumer confidence plunges

American consumers do not expect to be feeling any more confident in six months' time, a widely-watched index revealed today, underlining the hurdles facing a recovery in the world's biggest economy.

New fears over bank break-ups

The Government inquiry into UK banks is to go much further than the issue of splitting the banks apart and look at the lack of competition in the retail sector.

Darling attacks Germans over help for Greece

The euro has been permanently damaged by Germany's failure to intervene swiftly during the sovereign debt crisis earlier this year, Alistair Darling has said in an unusually frank attack.

9.17.2010

Losses from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac seizures may near $400 billion

Federal Housing Finance Agency is seeking billions in repayment from banks that sold bad loans to the mortgage giants to help offset taxpayer losses, but some financial institutions are balking.

Foreclosures Rise; Repossessions Set Record

US foreclosure activity rose in August from the previous month, and banks and lenders took ownership from homeowners at a record pace, according to a new report released Thursday.

Greenspan’s Warning on Gold

Alan Greenspan spoke at the Council on Foreign Relations earlier today, and what was his advice? That central bankers should be doing what these columns, among others, have been rattling on about, namely that they should be paying attention to gold. “Fiat money has no place to go but gold,” the former Fed chairman said at the Council, according to economist David Malpass, who quotes Mr. Greenspan in one of Mr. Malpass’ emails on the political economy. Mr. Malpass writes that the former chairman of the Federal Reserve’s board of governors was responding to a question in respect of why gold was hitting new highs.

`Death Spiral' Besets State Pensions as Benefits Grow

U.S. state pensions such as Illinois, Kansas and New Jersey are in a “death spiral,” with assets at many insufficient to cover benefits, payouts consuming a growing portion of resources and costs rising twice as fast as investment gains.

Argentines Say Buy Now as 25% Inflation Outlook Buoys Car Sales

Argentines are stepping up purchases of cars and televisions in a bid to beat inflation consumers see accelerating to 25 percent, the second-highest in the world after Venezuela.

Colombia central bank buys dollars, peso falls

Central bank to buy at least $20 mln daily

Bank of Japan riles US with yen move

Japan has launched a huge intervention in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 2004 to stem the rise of the yen and head off a deflation spiral, prompting harsh protests from top US Democrats on Capitol Hill.

Yen Intervention Fans Flames Of Anti-Japanese Rage Across China

Anti-Japanese rage reached the highest level in years last night in China, says The Standard. In Guangzhou, protestors hurled beer bottles at the Japanese consulate. In Tianjin, they damaged Japanese buildings and fired ball bearings at a foreign school. In Hong Kong, activists stormed the Japanese consulate. Even Beijing has endorsed massive protests this weekend. Anti-Japanese sentiment has to do with a captured fishing boat and territorial protests -- but it also coincides with a yen intervention that will challenge China's export advantage.

Strategic Metals: An Introduction

Some time back in the last quarter of the 20th century, strategic metals came to be defined generally as metals vital to modern technology and industry, but that have sources susceptible to disruption. In other words, they are metals you really need, but someone else has. Strategic metals are distinct from "precious" metals, like silver and gold, because most are not as vital to either technology and industry in the same way. Likewise, they differ from "base" metals, such as copper, lead, iron and zinc, in that those metals are relatively abundant in locations around the world. While some strategic metals like chromium, manganese or tungsten are produced on a relatively large scale, many others are produced in extraordinarily small quantities. For example, only an estimated 140 tonnes of germanium was produced in 2010, while only an estimated 10 tonnes of thallium, a highly toxic element, was produced.

China leads the way economically – but will it ever lead the world?

Tianjin is a city buzzing with confidence and construction. It's a contrast to Western austerity, writes Jeremy Warner.

US-China clash over yuan escalates, risking superpower stand-off

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has issued his harshest attack to date on China’s currency policy, the latest move in an escalating superpower clash across the gamut of commercial and strategic relations.

Recovery hopes falter as retail sales disappoint

Britain's recovery hopes have suffered a sharp setback after surprisingly weak retail sales figures provided damning evidence that consumers are tightening their belts ahead of the Government's austerity measures.

EU plans curbs on short selling, derivatives

he European Commission has proposed radical curbs on short selling and derivatives trading in a bid to bring the multi-trillion dollar market in from “Wild West territory”.

9.15.2010

How Hyperinflation Will Happen

Right now, we are in the middle of deflation. The Global Depression we are experiencing has squeezed both aggregate demand levels and aggregate asset prices as never before. Since the credit crunch of September 2008, the U.S. and world economies have been slowly circling the deflationary drain. To counter this, the U.S. government has been running massive deficits, as it seeks to prop up aggregate demand levels by way of fiscal “stimulus” spending—the classic Keynesian move, the same old prescription since donkey’s ears. But the stimulus, apart from being slow and inefficient, has simply not been enough to offset the fall in consumer spending.

More banks missing TARP dividend payments

Big Wall Street firms have the most bruised public reputations, but it's a collection of smaller banks that continues to plague the Treasury Department's bank bailout program. The latest report from the agency shows that more than 120 institutions - nearly all of them small banks - have missed their scheduled quarterly dividend payments, which is more than a sixth of the banks that received federal aid during the financial crisis.

Why governments love inflation and you should love gold

wo years ago, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. Today the authorities would have you believe that the financial crisis is all but behind us. Sure, the 'recovery' may be faltering a little, but that's just a temporary thing: give it a couple of months and all will be well.

Double-dip recession 'more likely' as UK faces two years of house price pain

A double-dip recession has become more likely and the UK is facing at least two years of house price falls, according to a leading fund manager Neil Woodford.

Gold price hits record high above $1,269

The price of gold, a safe-haven investment in times of economic uncertainty, has struck an all-time high above $1,269.

Chinese think tank warns US it will emerge as loser in trade war

A State Council think-tank in China has warned Washington that the US will come off worst in a trade war if it imposes sanctions against Beijing over the two nations' currency spat.

9.14.2010

9.09.2010

Brazil’s Shifting Fortunes: This BRIC Economy is Ready to Fall Out of Fashion

Batten down the hatches. Brazil, the media-darling of the world financial press and the poster child for emerging-markets investing, is heading directly into the eye of the storm.

Ben Davies: Gold Wars - A Golden Renaissance

Ben Davies, CEO of Hinde Capital put together this piece exclusively for the King World News blog which gives an outstanding synopsis of both the 41 page slideshow presentation and 23 page speech from the rising star out of London. It discusses US government suppression of the gold price and the unsustainable debt of the US & UK. It gives some staggering potential price figures for gold

James Turk - Rare Trading Action, Explosion Imminent

Gold is attacking $1,260 in European trading and silver is moving towards $20.

There Are Now Enough Vacant Properties In China To House Over Half Of America

Property stocks in China were weak today due to media reports that the Beijing and Shanghai authorities were investigating the high vacancy rate for Chinese property. Markets are worried they'll be shocked by what they discover and clamp down on speculation even harder than they have.

Ireland's banking woes could spark another eurozone crisis

One thing that the credit crisis has taught us is that there is no such thing as a bankrupt bank. There are only 'good' banks – and 'bad' banks. Good banks hold all the bits of a bank that are solvent and still work as a business. Bad banks hold all the bits of a bank that would – if it was any other sort of business – render it bankrupt. Ireland already has one bad bank. It's called the National Asset Management Agency (Nama). It's been using taxpayers' money to buy up all the rubbishy bits from the rest of the country's banks. But Ireland's in such a deep hole that one bad bank simply isn't enough.

9.08.2010

Silver looks set to take off

Silver has a nasty habit of taking people by surprise.

No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini

The United States, Japan and large parts of Europe have exhausted their policy arsenal, leaving them defenceless against a double-dip recession as recovery slows to ‘stall speed’.

China’s young officers and the 1930s syndrome

“China’s military spending is growing so fast that it has overtaken strategy,” said Professor Huang Jing from the Lee Kwan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore.

Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The internal draft document -- leaked on the Internet -- shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.

Anglo Irish Bank Ireland's finance minister tries to calm fears over Anglo Irish Bank

Brian Lenihan dismisses talk that €25bn cost of toxic bank could bankrupt Ireland and says no 'magic resurrection' for economy

Venezuela introduces Cuba-like food card

Presented by President Hugo Chávez as an instrument to make shopping for groceries easier, the ``Good Life Card'' is making various segments of the population wary because they see it as a furtive attempt to introduce a rationing card similar to the one in Cuba

9.07.2010

Will Developing Economies Help Sustain the Global Recovery?

Strong economic performance in developing countries will not only benefit the 5.6 billion people who reside there, but will also impact the likelihood of a double-dip recession in advanced countries. As GDP growth in advanced countries slows sharply, emerging economies are set to help sustain the global recovery. Though growth in emerging markets has moderated from torrid post-crisis rates, it remains high. In addition, it has grown more reliant on domestic demand, and is broadening across sectors. This high rate of growth can help mitigate a sharp slowdown of domestic demand in advanced countries, but cannot compensate fully for it.

Three ways to brace for a double dip recession

How to be protected against double dip

Europe's debt problems haven't gone away – they've just begun

Yesterday the FTSE 100 added another 11 points to its recent strong run. Europe's shares were up a touch too. Indeed the DJ Stoxx 600 index, made up of a mix of European stocks, has gained 10% within the last two months. So you could be forgiven for thinking things are now just about all right again in the eurozone. And that the continent's government bond panics of a few months ago are history. Sadly, that's not the case. Sovereign debt default fears are back. And this time, they could actually be worse. Here's why.

EU austerity policies risk civil war in Greece, warns top German economist Dr Sinn

Greece’s austerity measures cannot prevent default and will lead to a breakdown of the political order if continued for long, a leading German economist has warned.

Pending Home Sales Reconfirm The Housing Market is Crashing

Record low levels of demand continue to haunt the U.S. housing market with July pending home sales re-confirming previous crash-level readings

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