Don't be fooled by the good news on shops and banks

Markets had an impressive rally yesterday. The Dow Jones sprinted back above the 10,000 mark, while the S&P 500 leapt to around 1,060. Why? I've used the "more buyers than sellers" crack once too often. But investors were certainly looking for reasons to buy. And they got one. Apparently, US retail sales are going to come in stronger than expected. The International Council of Shopping Centers (not the most high profile research body, I admit) reckons that sales "probably expanded at an average monthly rate of 4%" in the five months since 31 January. That's the biggest gain since 2006. According to Bill Dreher, a Deutsche Bank analyst, sales reports for June will beat expectations and "the positive comparable-sales trend will continue." Sounds impressive. But as always, there's a catch...