What will happen to the oil price in 2013?

The US energy sector is undergoing a rapid change. It’s no exaggeration to describe it as a revolution. The nation’s ability to get at once-inaccessible shale oil and gas has sent energy production soaring. The US Energy Information Administration expects oil production to rise by 25% this year. And in less than a decade, America could overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer. This could have a major impact on everything from US industry to the strength of the dollar. It’s all very exciting. But it’s easy to get a little too carried away, particularly now that everyone knows about the ‘shale gas revolution’. Those expecting a future of cheap energy and collapsing oil prices are heading for a disappointment.

Every gold investor should watch these numbers like a hawk

This frustrating period of going nowhere continues for gold investors. 2013 continues in the vein of 2012. In the past week we've had a nice move from below $1,630 an ounce to $1,680. But that only leaves us flat on the year. Gold is being left behind by other markets. Can we expect more of the same for the rest of the year?

Seven Ways to Tell if Your Gold is Counterfeit

I had just finished a walking tour of the Royal Canadian Mint when I saw it. Right there, out in the open, was a 400-ounce bar of pure gold. It was chained to a display table and kept safe by an armed guard. At the time, in 2005, the bar was worth $220,000. Today, the same bar is worth $667,700. In just seven years, gold prices have jumped by 203%. But it's not the eternal fascination with gold that has boosted the price. With growing levels of worldwide uncertainties, mounting inflation risks and government distrust, people are clamoring for gold primarily as insurance. According to the World Gold Council, 2011 saw gold bars and coins reach nearly $77 billion in sales, versus 2002's $3.5 billion. And in November alone, the U.S. Mint's sales of the popular American Eagle coins jumped 131% in the wake of the election.

Why Inflation is the Economy's "Iceberg" in 2013

Even though Ben Bernanke's Fed has kept interest rates close to zero, inflation hasn't been a big problem since the 2008 financial crisis. Despite what many observers have expected inflation has remained quite tame. However in 2013, that may be about to change. One factor that might cause a surge in inflation is the fiscal cliff. That's because Bernanke is already buying $1 trillion of Treasury and housing agency bonds each year ($85 billion per month) against a budget deficit that is about the same level. That means the inflow of funds to the economy from the Fed and the outflow of money to fund the government's spending are about balanced. However, if we go over the fiscal cliff the Federal deficit immediately falls to about $300 billion per annum. At that point, Bernanke would be injecting an extra $700 billion a year into the economy - which would have a corresponding inflationary effect.

The real reason Germany wants its gold back from France

Germany wants its gold back. The German central bank, the Bundesbank, is laying out plans to bring a big chunk of the gold it has stored overseas back to Berlin. That’s a lot of gold. In absolute terms, only the US owns more gold than Germany. Why does this matter? Well, for one thing, it suggests the Bundesbank doesn’t trust other central banks to look after the country’s gold. But perhaps more importantly, it rather suggests that Germany has serious doubts about the ability of the euro to hold its value

China blazes trail for 'clean' nuclear power from thorium

The Chinese are running away with thorium energy, sharpening a global race for the prize of clean, cheap, and safe nuclear power. Good luck to them. They may do us all a favour.

Japan plans 'nationalisation' of factories to save industry

Japan's government is to take the unprecedented step of buying factories and machinery directly with taxpayer funds, the latest in a series of radical steps to lift the country out of its deep slump.

US lambasts China for breaches of trade rules

Washington has issued a blistering attack on China for persistent breaches of world trade rules and abuse of industrial secrets, accusing Beijing of failing to abide by treaty obligations.

Fitch expects 'Bond Bubble' carnage when rate cycle turns

The worldwide stampede into corporate debt over the past year has fuelled a “bond bubble” that threatens heavy losses for investors once interest rates spike up again, Fitch Ratings has warned.

World Bank fears fresh credit bubble in China on hot money flows

China and Asia’s tigers are roaring back to life and risk a fresh credit booms unless they can choke inflows of hot money, the World Bank has warned.

Asia's insatiable demand for coal plays havoc with climate goals

For greens, ecologists, and those convinced that CO2 emissions pose a grave threat to the planet, it is a nightmare coming true. The world is becoming more reliant on high-polluting coal, not less.

Japan's Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world

Japan’s incoming leader Shinzo Abe has vowed to ram through full-blown reflation policies to pull his country out of slump and drive down the yen, warning Japan's central bank not to defy the will of the people.

Could this be the trigger for a sterling crisis?

'Bubble' is one of those terms that gets bandied about rather liberally, with no one quite agreeing on what it means. Some say it's merely a rapid price rise, with a contraction to follow. Others say it's a rapid price increase, which bears no relation to underlying economic fundamentals. This creates an artificial market, meaning that rapid drops are inevitable. I like to define a bubble as “a bull market in which you don't have a position”. All three of these definitions could easily be applied to the US long bond (the 30-year Treasury) and UK gilts. So are these governments bonds in a bubble? And if so, when will it pop? And what will the consequences be?

Nine big predictions for markets in the year ahead

It’s that time of year when we look into our crystal balls, nod wisely and pronounce what will come pass. And this time next year, we offer excuses as to why it didn’t. Today, I’m going to make some specific predictions for 2013. 13 for 2013 is too many, so I am going to give you nine - nine’s my lucky number. Perhaps next year we can mark it: two points for a hit; one for a ‘nearly right’; nothing for a flunk. Most of these predictions are based around my current ‘big-picture’ theory, so I’ll start by giving you that…

2013 Eurozone Forecast: Why A Eurozone Breakup Is Now More Likely Than Ever

To the complete shock of several analysts, the Eurozone managed to make it through 2012 without breaking up. However, 2013 is another story. Now that Italy's Prime Minister Mario Monti has resigned, there's a good chance that Italy will be in the forefront of a new Eurozone crisis. That means 2013 doesn't look to be a good year for the euro, either-especially with new Italian elections likely to take place in February. Of course, the EU establishment hopes that Monti can remain in office, but with four very different candidates now jockeying for position, Italy is one of the continent's great question marks.

S&P sees deeper house price falls in eurozone as slump engulfs core

Europe’s housing slump is engulfing large parts of the eurozone core as recession deepens, with prices to keep sliding for another two years, Standard & Poor’s has warned.

Europe drawn into global currency wars as slump deepens

The world is edging closer to all out currency conflict as Europe’s politicians join a chorus of policy-makers across the globe pushing for devaluations to fight for market share.

French capital flight spikes as Hollande hits business

France suffered a surge of capital flight over the autumn as president Francois Hollande pushed through a raft of tax rises and stepped up his campaign against the rich.

Mario Draghi has saved the rich, now he must save the poor

The European Central Bank has washed its hands of any further responsibility for the 27m people across the eurozone listed as unemployed or classified as discouraged workers.

ECB rules out stimulus despite record jobless and fiscal squeeze

The European Central Bank has dashed hopes of further stimulus to pull the eurozone out of recession and fight record unemployment, deeming the economy strong enough to heal itself.

Irish house prices to fall another 20pc, warns Fitch

Irish house prices could fall a further 20pc and inflict stiff losses on holders of mortgage bonds, with a growing risk of property defaults across the eurozone periphery, according to Fitch Ratings.

Brussels fears 'poverty trap' for half of Europe as North-South gap widens

Unemployment in the eurozone jumped to a record high of 11.8pc in November as the region slid deeper into recession, with alarming rises across the Mediterranean that threaten extreme social distress.

Europe's dream of toppling dollar fades as Asian Tigers dump euro

The share of euros in the world’s rising powers’ reserve holdings has fallen to its lowest level since 2002, dashing hopes that the single currency will soon challenge the US dollar for global primacy.

Portugal warns EU-IMF troika to back off on austerity demands

Portugal's president has ordered a legal inquiry into the country’s austerity policies and threatened a showdown with creditors over the draconian terms of its EU-IMF bail-out.

Spain's house prices to fall another 30pc as glut keeps growing

Spain's property slump will deepen for much of the next decade, and tracts of buildings along the Mediterannean coast will have to be demolished, the country's top consultants have warned.

Doubts remain over Spain's austerity miracle

Spain has made dramatic strides in cutting labour costs and reviving exports since the debt crisis erupted, turning the country into the new poster-child of Europe’s austerity regime.