Peak cheap oil is an incontrovertible fact

If the looming global oil crunch has been postponed for another decade or two as widely alleged, this is far from obvious in today’s commodity markets.

Dennis Gartman Just Dumped All Of His Stocks

Back in February when the DOW crossed the 13,000 mark, Dennis Gartman said he had made a mistake reducing the size of his long position. He said, "you make it sound like I'm short of equities. Not on your life. Not right now" Now Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Letter, who cut his long position by half earlier this week, has exited stocks entirely.

China bubble in 'danger zone' warns Bank of Japan

China risks a repeat of Japan’s boom-bust disaster 20 years ago as exorbitant property prices combine with a demographic tipping point, a top Japanese official has warned.

Bernanke Sees More Scope for Easing to Spur U.S. Economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank has the ability to take additional steps to boost the economy.

Citi pulls funds from '$5bn man' John Paulson

He is credited with earning the fastest $5bn (£3bn) ever made, but John Paulson, the American financier, now appears to be losing money from his famous hedge fund even faster.

Fed joins stimulus party as global trade slumps

All three major blocs of the world economy have shifted gears dramatically over the last month, preparing a fresh blast of stimulus to combat the sharpest contraction in global trade since the 2008-09 crisis.

“Look at me – I’m a thieving enemy of the people”

If you lived in Italy today would you buy a new super yacht? I suspect you would not. Why? Because the taxman might see it and if he did he might pop round to ask exactly how you paid for it. And given the size of the black economy in Italy, that might be a question you didn’t want to answer. But it might not be just yachts you are shying away from splashing out on. And your reluctance to spend may have nothing to do with being Italian or owning Italian assets. Across the globe there are signs that high-end buyers of luxury goods are closing their wallets. Tax is one reason. Another is that ostentatious wealth is no longer admired or accepted in the way that it was. And that’s bad news for luxury goods shares.

Italy's Wealthy Yacht Owners Sail Away From Taxman

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/italy-s-wealthy-yacht-owners-sail-away-from-taxman-ZpkuOdrESJa0FtmZ6EOVmw.html

Germany will support Greece, says Angela Merkel

German Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed on Friday that she wants Greece to remain in the euro, but made no mention of any concessions Europe was prepared to offer over its austerity targets.

Fitch is targeted by Italian magistrate

Italian prosecutors have compiled a controversial case against Fitch Ratings for allegedly issuing “false and unfounded judgements” against Italy, the latest move in an escalating judicial campaign against “Anglo-Saxon” credit agencies.

Lord Rothschild takes £130m bet against the euro

Lord Rothschild has taken a near-£130m bet against the euro as fears continue to grow that the single currency will break up.

Banks Use $1.77 Trillion to Double Treasury Purchases

The gap between U.S. bank deposits and loans is growing at the fastest pace in two years, providing lenders with more funds to buy bonds and temper the biggest sell-off in Treasuries since 2010.

Another way to profit from a Chinese slowdown – buy Mexico

Investment banks like to group 'hot' countries together. Not only is it a great way to grab investors’ attention, sometimes it even makes money. In 2001, Goldman Sachs came up with the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China. Those four markets did very well during the 2000s. However, as we’ve pointed out already, these four seem to have hit the buffers. So now Goldman has come up with another shiny package of ‘must-have’ nations. The catchy acronym this time? MIST – Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey. As with the BRICs, there’s no real reason to group these countries together beyond branding. Each has its own merits and individual problems. However, of the four, Mexico looks the most interesting to us. Here’s why…

Germany backs Draghi bond plan against Bundesbank

Germany’s director at the European Central Bank has thrown his weight behind mass purchases of Spanish and Italian debt to prevent the disintegration of the euro, marking a crucial turning point in the eurozone debt crisis.

Global gold demand down in Q2 but Central Bank buying hits record

Latest figures from the World Gold Council show that global gold demand fell back in Q2 2012 compared with a year ago, but Central Bank buying rose to a new record level.

How to profit from Brazil’s infrastructure splurge

It’s all gone wrong for the Brics. Brazil, Russia, India and China were meant to dominate the global economy in the near future. As it stands, Russia remains hopelessly dependent on oil, India can’t get its act together at all, and China is suffering a hard landing. As for Brazil, falling commodity prices (a knock-on impact of China’s landing) are likely to hit growth this year. The country is also suffering a major credit bubble. My colleague Merryn Somerset Webb thinks that property in Brazil is overdue a fall. But while we’re bearish on the market overall, there are still some pockets of opportunity in Brazil – here’s why…

Retail Exodus From Stocks Continues: Another $3.6 Billion Pulled Out Last week

There was a time when retail stock outflows were considered a bullish catalyst: after all, retail was always considered the dumb money (not "two and twenty" hedge funds which continue to underperform the stock market, and have done so for the past five years), and would pull money at the bottom and add money at the top. This is no longer the case for the simple reason that while persistent outflows from domestic equity funds continue (and as the recent shuttering of levered ETFs by Direxion shows the infatuation with synthetic mutual fund replacements is now over), for the inverse to be true there have to be inflows, which are now non-existent.

Is the gold mining sector about to take off?

Gold has had a quiet year. Despite the prospect of more money printing by the world’s central banks, and minuscule interest rates, it seems that not many people see inflation as a big threat at the moment. But things can change quickly in the financial world. Often the best time to buy things is when nobody really wants them. It’s interesting that renowned investors George Soros and John Paulson have been buying gold recently. It looks a smart move to us. Gold is worth holding, if only as a form of insurance against paper money going bad – which it eventually will, if all the printing continues. We certainly see no reason to hold low-yielding government bonds. But what about gold mining stocks? If you believe that you should own gold and that it will go up in price, surely gold stocks are a good investment?

Russian Bear stops Finland leaving euro

German eurosceptics quietly hope that Finland will become the first creditor state to storm out of monetary union in disgust, opening the way for others to break free.

Finland prepares for break-up of eurozone

Finland is preparing for the break-up of the eurozone, the country’s foreign minister warned today.

World shipping crisis threatens German dominance as Greeks win long game

Germany’s shipping industry faces a wave of bankruptcies over coming months as funding dries up and deepening economic woes across the world cause a sharp contraction in container trade.

Five years on, the Great Recession is turning into a life sentence

Five years into the Long Slump it almost seems as if we are back to square one.

The Solution…is the Problem

When we wrote Part I of this paper in June 2009, the total U.S. public debt was just north of $10 trillion. Since then, that figure has increased by more than 50% to almost $16 trillion, thanks largely to unprecedented levels of government intervention.

Exclusive: U.S. banks told to make plans for preventing collapse

U.S. regulators directed five of the country's biggest banks, including Bank of America Corp and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, to develop plans for staving off collapse if they faced serious problems, emphasizing that the banks could not count on government help.

Gold is no safe haven – but you should still own some

“Sell gold”. That’s the message from FT columnist Peter Tasker, a Tokyo-based analyst with Arcus Research. As far as he’s concerned, gold’s bull market is over. I’m a fan of Tasker’s writing. He often talks a lot of sense. And I normally agree with him. I even agree with many of the points he makes about gold. But not quite all of them…

The Problem with Renewable Energy is the Price

I haven't written about renewable energy in recent months for a very specific reason. The market for sources such as solar, wind, and biofuel has collapsed. There are two reasons. Both involve price. First, while crude oil is beginning to move upward, and natural gas prices have increased by about 57% over the past three months, both had fallen to unusually low levels. That means the primary ally of alternative sourcing - the acceleration in the price of hydrocarbons - has been absent. Of course, there are environmental, lifestyle, and social considerations that would benefit from renewable energy. Taken by themselves, however, these do not have more than a marginal impact on the energy balance.

What 700 Million People in the Dark Says About Investing in India

For years now I've preferred China over India. When invariably asked to compare the two as investments, my answer has always been the same. Somewhat tongue -in-cheek, I'd point out "that India has trouble keeping the lights on from one end of the country to the other." Little did I know that those comments made in jest would actually become reality. Earlier this week, a massive power blackout left more than 700 million people without power in India as not one, but three, regional electrical grids failed. If that isn't a glaring sign that India isn't ready for prime-time I don't know what I can say to make you see the light - pun absolutely intended. Don't get me wrong. There are clearly a few select Indian companies worth the risk. But as a whole, the scope of this power failure suggests India has a long way to go before it achieves the global superpower status it seeks and a dominant position in your portfolio.

A new way to profit from China’s slowdown: get into the wine business

Chile is the Switzerland of South America. Trains run on time, the economy generally outperforms its larger neighbours and the politicians have a solid record of prudent macroeconomic management. Throw in Chile’s relatively sound legal system, free press and established democracy, and it’s easy to understand why it’s popular with investors. But a storm is brewing for the Chilean economy. As the world’s biggest copper producer, Chile is very dependent on China’s appetite for raw materials. And right now, China isn’t feeling as hungry as it once did. Yet this could be very good news for one specific Chilean industry – and one company in particular. Let me explain…

Hard landing for China as factory prices fall and deflation looms

Factory gate prices in China fell at an accelerating rate of 2.9pc in July as the economy flirted with industrial recession, prompting calls for further stimulus to head off Japanese-style deflation.

Eurozone money printing is on the horizon – buy Europe now

On Thursday evening, it seemed all was lost for the eurozone. Mario Draghi had sworn to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. Then on Thursday afternoon, he did nothing. He just talked. With the ‘big bazooka’ failing to materialise, markets plunged, as you’d expect. The European Central Bank (ECB) had failed. But then on Friday, yields on Spanish and Italian debt fell, and markets rebounded sharply. Suddenly the end of the world didn’t seem quite as nigh. So what’s changed everyone’s minds?

Global slump risk falls as world money rebounds

The first green shoots have begun to emerge in money supply data from across the world, raising hopes of a tentative global recovery by later this year.

Five years of financial crisis

Here is a selection of news and views from the stories, blogs and columns over the past five years about financial crisis.

Germany and Italy near blows over euro

German politicians from across the spectrum have reacted furiously to warnings by Italy’s Mario Monti that Bundestag control over EU debt policies threatens to bring about the “disintegration” of the European project.

Venetian cunning of Draghi-Monti masterplan may save euro for now

So we enter the treacherous market month of August with Europe in limbo. The actors wait upon each other. World finance held hostage to a fiendishly complicated game of diplomatic chess.

Pressure on Spain to bow to bail-out

Italy’s leader Mario Monti is to make a last-ditch effort tomorrow to persuade Spain to swallow its pride and accept a formal rescue, hoping to clear the way for double-barrelled action by bail-out funds and the European Central Bank.

China prepares vast stimulus as slump threatens Asia

China has ditched its reform strategy and prepared a vast stimulus package as the country’s soft-landing turns uncomfortably hard, with recession warnings flashing across East Asia.

Spain Reports Record Capital Flight

Capital outflows from Spain quadrupled in May to €41.3 billion from May 2011 in a sign of waning confidence in the country's ailing banking sector. In the first five months of this year, outflows reached a record €163 billion, according to figures from the country's central bank.

Try as He Might, Mario Draghi Cannot Save the Euro

Of all the pyramid schemes that governments and banks have perpetrated in the last decade, the Eurozone debt crisis is the most damaging. No amount of posturing by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi can change that fact. The market may like what Draghi has to say about the fate of the euro, but tomorrow's big ECB meeting will change little. The massive amount of money Draghi will need to print is far too great for the German taxpayer or the ECB's balance sheet. Eventually, the Eurozone will break up and drag the global economy right down with it. In the long run, that will mark the beginning of the recovery, but in the short run it will precipitate a banking and economic crisis that will make 2008 look like child's play. As investors, we had better be prepared.

Europe is cheap. It's time to buy

Since the Olympics kicked off, markets have been on a bit of a tear. But it’s not because investors all loved Danny Boyle’s opening ceremony. It’s all down to a central banker, once again. You’ve heard of the ‘Greenspan put’ and the 'Bernanke put’: the way that markets can always rely on the US Federal Reserve chief to cut interest rates and prop up stocks. Now investors are betting on the ‘Draghi put’. Last Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi promised that he’d do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. This Thursday, he gets the chance to prove it, as the ECB governing council meets to discuss what to do. But can he live up to expectations? And what happens if he doesn’t?