The gold bull market: the 144-day moving average works again

Yesterday was one of those days when you’re glad you owned gold. It was up about $50 an ounce on the day. It’s rising again this morning. Silver was up over 5%. Both made the bulk of their moves in just a few minutes – it would have been very difficult to catch. You had to be positioned already. Which, of course, you were, because you bought some more last week, when somebody recommended that you do so.

European Contagion Turns Positive, Will it Last?

After European leaders announced a plan to stem Eurozone and global panic over Greece's potential default and shore up capital at beleaguered banks, positive contagion is lifting stock markets from one end of the planet to the other. What's not to love? Well, the plan itself, for one thing. It's so full of holes that unless it's tightened-up, detailed, actually agreed to, financed and executed, it's nothing but an outline in the sand. Don't get me wrong, it's a start. But, the question investors have to ask themselves is, if the plan isn't written in stone and if they've missed this rally, is now the time to jump back into equities? The answer is yes and no. Understanding where the risks are and how to position yourself to profit on the heels of this new global positivity requires looking at the European bailout plan as proposed, and measuring it against the realities constantly unfolding in the future. Let's start with the plan and measure it against what you should be watching in the days, weeks, and months ahead.

Why the latest eurozone bail-out is destined to fail within weeks

I want last week's European bail-out to work. My sincere hope is that collective and decisive action by the eurozone's large member states will stabilize global markets, at least for a while, so allowing the global economy to catch its breath.

The two halves of the eurozone are locked in a broken marriage

One by one, the democracies of Southern Europe are being broken on the wheel of monetary union.

Europe's rescue euphoria threatened as Portugal enters 'Grecian vortex'

Monetary contraction in Portugal has intensified at an alarming pace and is mimicking the pattern seen in Greece before its economy spiralled out of control, raising concerns that the EU summit deal may soon washed over by fast-moving events.

Europe's grand gamble risks failure without ECB

Europe's "Grand Plan" to save monetary union is, in broad terms, a settled matter, even if the usual theatrics were still dragging on into the small hours of the Belgian night.

Recent sell-off sets up next gold rally

When the price of gold plunged 20 percent last month, many market watchers declared the gold boom over. Stalled, yes; ended, no, according to many gold analysts, who believe the precious metal may instead be near a new sustained rally.

Is Bank of America preparing for a Chapter 11?

Bank of America has managed to step into the kimchee several times over the past couple of months, an achievement that only warms the hearts of crisis communications professionals. First came the abortive settlement of $10 billion or so in put-back claims by some large investors. The State of New York and anyone else paying attention intervened. Settlement is now mostly muerto in political terms, although the big investors are still paying the big lawyers to soldier on in hope of forcing a settlement on all parties. Only in New York are such things possible.

Fed’s Yellen: QE3 May Be Warranted

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said a third round of large-scale securities purchases might become warranted if necessary to boost a U.S. economy challenged by unemployment and financial turmoil.

Europe's leaders need to do more than patch up a creaking structure

Two weeks ago I analysed how we got into the current dire state. One of five major causes was the crisis of the euro, and this was related to two other problems, the weakness of the banks and excessive levels of sovereign debt. Have recent events brought us any closer to sorting all this out?

Currency Crisis Heightens Trans-Atlantic Tensions

The US is becoming increasingly impatient with Europe's seeming inability to solve the ongoing euro crisis. Many in the United States think they know who is to blame: Germany.

World power swings back to America

The American phoenix is slowly rising again. Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus.

S&P sees downgrade blitz in EMU recession, threatening crisis strategy

Standard & Poor's (S&P) is to warn that a double-dip recession in Europe would imperil France's AAA rating and set off a string of downgrades across Southern Europe, undermining the EU's debt crisis strategy.

Berlin experts fear euro break-up from bail-out escalation

Plans to increase the firepower of Europe's bail-out machinery with extra leverage threaten France's AAA rating and risk setting off a dangerous chain of events, a top German institute has warned.

Europe's lost decade as $7 trillion loan crunch looms

Europe’s banks face a $7 trillion lending contraction to bring their balance sheets in line with the US and Japan, threatening to trap the region in a credit crunch and chronic depression for a decade.

How to get to a true gold standard

Today the economic crisis we endure is only the latest chapter in the century-long struggle to restore financial order, the success (or failure) of which is inextricably bound up with American prosperity and the promise of the American way of life.

Gold Vs. Miners: The Wrong Question, Part I

You want leverage in gold? Buy bullion. It keeps turning every 1% gain in gold mining stocks into a 2% rise... So why is it that gold mining stocks underperforming the metal so badly? "Gold stocks should be a levered bet on the price of gold...There has been a terrible underperformance," as one UK forum posting said back in June.

Foreigners Dump $74 Billion In Treasurys In 6 Consecutive Weeks: Biggest Sequential Outflow In History

Over the weekend, we observed the perplexing sell off of $56 billion in US Treasurys courtesy of weekly disclosure in the Fed's custodial account (source: H.4.1) and speculated if this may be due to an asset rotation, under duress or otherwise, out of bonds and into stocks, to prevent the collapse of the global ponzi (because when the BRICs tell the IMF to boost its bailout capacity you know it is global). We also proposed a far simpler theory: "the dreaded D-day in which foreign official and private investors finally start offloading their $2.7 trillion in Treasurys with impunity (although not with the element of surprise - China has made it abundantly clear it will sell its Treasury holdings, the only question is when), has finally arrived."

13 Financial Firms May Be Cut by Fitch

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Germany’s largest lender, is among at least 13 financial firms that may have credit or viability grades cut by Fitch Ratings.

China's debt spree returns to haunt

Bail-outs are coming thick and fast in China. In less than a week the authorities have had to step in to prop up the banks, rescue the insolvent railway system and save the near bankrupt city of Wenzhou from a spectacular debt crash.

Will Finland be the mouse that roars and be the first to leave the euro?

Markets rallied today on the hope that Europe was edging closer to paying the appalling cost of underwriting its debtor nations and recapitalising its banks to allow a Greek default. Strange times.

Europe's grand plan risks slow death by a thousand cuts

Is Europe's planned programme of banking recapitalisations going to work?

Coalition fiscal policy is under scrutiny because, for all the talk, we’re no nearer to the end of this economic crisis

Labour's attack on the Government's economic policy is misguided, as decisive action is needed to lift both Europe and the wider world out of the mire.

Banque de France turns a blind eye to European financial crisis

Crisis? What crisis? To judge by a speech in Tokyo last week from Christian Noyer, Governor of the Banque de France, you would never have guessed there was an almighty financial implosion going on at the heart of the eurozone.

Mario Draghi fears Italian debt spiral

Italy risks a debt spiral without "drastic" steps to cut spending and restore confidence in public finances, the country's central bank governor has warned.

German push for Greek default risks EMU-wide 'snowball'

Germany is pushing behind the scenes for a "hard" default in Greece with losses of up to 60pc for banks and pension funds, risking a chain-reaction across southern Europe unless credible defences are established first.

Taleb: World’s ’Problem’ Worse Than ’08

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the best-selling book “The Black Swan,” said the current global market turmoil is worse than it was in 2008 because countries such as the U.S. have larger sovereign-debt loads.

How QE2 will hit share prices and your wealth

You've got to hand it to those bankers. They've managed to freak out the financial markets again. Their prize is - you've guessed it - another big wad of money. Over the next four months, the Bank of England is going to hand a £75bn cheque to our banking system, as it launches the next batch of quantitative easing (QE2). At first glance, the stock market loved it. The FTSE 100 jumped by almost 4%. And yields on UK gilts fell. The Bank would argue that this is just what it wants to see. But the bad news for the Bank – not to mention the rest of us – is that this is just a short-term reaction. QE2 will do more harm than good. Here's why…

Moody's downgrade: 10 tips to tell how safe your bank is

Moody's, the credit ratings agency, has downgraded the senior debt and deposit ratings of 12 UK financial institutions and confirmed the ratings of 1 institution.

Investors ditch shares for cash

Investment into cash and money market funds more than doubled in the third quarter of the year as investors sought a safe haven from stock market volatility, according to the latest investment trends report from Skandia, the investment platform.

China's facade disguises economic troubles

In Shenzhen shopping mall there are no traces of the global financial crisis, just luxury goods as far as the eye can see.

ECB puts up capital to help banks, but keeps rates on hold

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced new measures to support stricken banks in the face of the eurozone's spiralling debt crisis, but refused to cut interest rates.

Bank of England pins hopes on QE2 to keep economy afloat

Frankly, it’s a close call. Faced with keeping the economy afloat, who would you back? The Governor of the Bank of England, with his £75 billion, second round of quantitative easing?

India, China lead gold rush

MUMBAI - Beijing becoming host to Asia's first automatic gold vending machine - in a continent where millions are yet to see the variety that spews paper cash and potato crisps - offers the latest indication of China and India being world's leading gold buyers, despite record fluctuating prices mid-September. Year-on-year consumer demand for gold in 2010-2011 grew 38% in India and 25% in China, compared with a 7% worldwide growth of gold sales. Global prices are around US$1,650 an ounce after hitting an historic high of $1,921.15 on September 6 on a 6%-plus rise since June.

5 Steps to a Global Gold Standard

Lewis Lehrman, founder of the Lehrman institute, unveils his 5 step plan to implement a global gold standard in 4 years at The Heritage Foundation's conference for a stable dollar.

How a Good Idea Became a Tragedy

The Greek crisis has revealed why the euro is the world's most dangerous currency. The euro was built on a foundation of debt and trickery, where economic principles were sacrificed to romantic political visions. The history of the common currency is the story of a good idea that turned into a tragedy of epic proportions. By SPIEGEL Staff.

Bank of England hits the panic button

Who was it who said that QE – printing money by another name – is the last resort of desperate governments, when all other options have failed?

Chile’s Richest Family Risks Golden Touch With Shipping Purchase: Freight

Chile’s Luksic family became the country’s wealthiest by buying underperforming businesses and turning them around. With shipping company Cia. Sud Americana de Vapores SA, it may have lost its way.

Italy downgrade deepens contagion fears over euro debt crisis

Ratings agency Moody's slashes Italy debt rating by three points, increasing pressure on European governments trying to contain financial crisis

European Banks Show Signs of Ill Health

Germany's Deutsche Bank issued a profit warning on Tuesday and a Franco-Belgian bank wobbled signficantly as Greek debt begins to drag significantly on Europe's financial industry. The European Central Bank is expected to make emergency credit available this week for the first time since the Lehman collapse.

Key reversal day?

Might the stock market have hit a major bottom on the very day that it also satisfied the official definition of a bear market? That distinct possibility is raised by the market’s stunning recovery in the last hour of today’s trading session, which appears to satisfy the definition of a “key reversal day”—a technical event that some technicians believe to be potentially quite bullish. A key reversal day occurs when the market records a new low and then rallies to close above the previous day’s close. And that’s exactly what happened Tuesday: The S&P 500 SPX fell to an intra-day low early in the session at 1,074.77 — which was 21.2% below this benchmark’s closing bull market high of 1,363.61, hit last Apr. 29. That’s in excess of the 20% drop that is often used as the dividing line between a mere correction and a major bear market. By the end of the session, however, the S&P 500 had rallied from that new intra-day low to close at 1123.95, up 2.3% on the session, and up more than 49 points from the session’s low. To be sure, a key reversal day in an of itself does not guarantee that the bear market ended today.

How much further will markets fall?

Where – and when – is this all going to end? That's the question I'm asking myself. We seem to be in full-blown capitulation mode. But capitulations do not last forever. Sooner or later – much like November 2008 or March 2009 – the prices on offer will be too compelling and buyers will come in. But, again, the wretched question is when?

What to buy as Europe nears its sub-prime moment

The US is on the verge of a bear market. Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed down nearly 3%, hitting its lowest level since last September. The market has now fallen 19% since April, when it hit its post-2008 peak. That's a shade off the 20% commonly defined as a bear market. Meanwhile, currencies from the euro to the Aussie dollar slid against their US counterpart. The dollar remains the haven of choice in a panic. What's the problem? You could reel off a list as long as your arm. But it boils down to one thing – it's those pesky banks again.

Protectionism beckons as leaders push world into Depression

The world savings rate has surpassed its modern-era high of 24pc. This is the killer in the global system. It is why we are at imminent risk of tipping into a second, deeper leg of intractable depression.

The US is heading for recession – here’s where to take cover

Making recession calls is a well-worn route to fleeting fame as an ‘investment guru’. Get it right, and you’re feted as a seer. Get it wrong, and most of the time, no one takes much notice. So in terms of risk / reward pay-off, it’s an attractive strategy. It also means that investors can be forgiven for taking cries of ‘recession ahead!’ with a big pinch of salt. But on Friday, one group issued a recession warning that you shouldn’t ignore. Why? Because these guys have a good track record – and they’re not in the habit of crying wolf.

'We didn't mean to track you' says Facebook as social network giant admits to 'bugs' in new privacy row

Facebook has admitted that it has been watching the web pages its members visit – even when they have logged out

The most dangerous bubble of all

The word 'bubble' gets bandied about a lot. Many people get hot under the collar arguing over whether something is in a bubble or not. But, just as in heated inflation-deflation debates, few take the trouble to agree on a definition first. I've always rather liked my definition. 'A bubble is a bull market in which you don't have a position'. There's nothing so frustrating as seeing someone of undoubtedly inferior intelligence earn fortunes while you're sat on the sidelines. So you declare his market a bubble. But I doubt my definition will ever make it into the conventional lexicon, so we'll have to agree on an alternative in today's Money Morning, as we consider whether the government bond market is in a bubble or not…

Eurozone crisis: there are no miracles in Greek tragedies

Lending ever greater sums to a mismanaged and corrupt economy won’t make it solvent , says Jeff Randall.

German bailout vote is 'too little, too late'

Germany's Bundestag has voted overwhelmingly to boost the scope of the EU's rescue fund but implicitly capped its firepower at €440bn, leaving it no clearer whether Europe has the means to halt debt contagion to Italy and Spain.

Debt crunch threatens China and emerging markets

Europe's banking woes have begun to set off a funding crunch in the emerging markets of Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, leaving them nakedly exposed as the rich world slides into a double-dip downturn.

Germany slams 'stupid' US plans to boost EU rescue fund

Germany and America were on a collision course on Tuesday night over the handling of Europe's debt crisis after Berlin savaged plans to boost the EU rescue fund as a "stupid idea" and told the White House to sort out its own mess before giving gratuitous advice to others.

German turmoil over EU bail-outs as top judge calls for referendum

Germany's top judge has issued a blunt warning that no further fiscal powers may be surrendered to Europe without a new constitution and a popular referendum, vastly complicating plans to boost the EU's rescue machinery to €2 trillion (£1.7 trillion).

Geithner Plan for Europe is last chance to avoid global catastrophe

Europe, the G20, and the global authorities have one last chance to contain the EMU debt crisis with a nuclear solution or abdicate responsibility and watch as the world slides into depression, endangering the benign but fragile order that has taken shape over the last three decades.

Fear gauge enters the red zone

Europe's debt crisis risks escalating out of control as the world economy slides towards a double-dip slump with few shock absorbers left to limit the damage.

Can China escape as world's debt crisis reaches Act III?

When America became the first casualty of the global credit bubble in 2007, Europe's political elites thought it had nothing to do with them.

China 'faces subprime credit bubble crisis'

Monetary tightening in China threatens to pop the $1.7 trillion (£1.07 trillion) credit bubble in local government finance and expose the country's simmering "subprime" crisis, according to the Communist Party's economic guru.