7.29.2010

Share of GDP: China, India, Japan, Latin America, Western Europe, United States

After coming across this graph about the share of world GDP (China, India, and US), I started to wonder what was the percentage back to 1500? The graph below shows the share of GDP over the last 500 years for China, India, Japan, Latin America, Western Europe, and United States. (Keep in mind that the change in population size will effect the size of the GDP)

Europe's €30 trillion headache

European banks have amassed €30 trillion in liabilities and face a serious funding threat over the next two years as authorities withdraw emergency support, according to a new report by Standard & Poor's.

The house price rally has run out of steam - what's next?

The house price rally has most definitely run out of steam. Nationwide building society reported this morning that prices fell by 0.5% during July. Annual price inflation fell from 8.7% in June to 6.6%. Apparently the average house in Britain will now set you back a mere £169,347. The Land Registry disagrees slightly. It reckons prices were sitting at around £166,072 in June. But let's not quibble over a few grand. This is roughly where prices were sitting in mid-2006. And there's been a barrage of data pointing to further falls in the coming months. So are we heading for a second crash?

7.22.2010

China Plans for Its Competitive Future With Mining Asset Drive

China now produces not only (already) half of the world’s steel but also some 53% of all of the metals produced in the world. By 2012, China will produce more than 60% of the world’s steel, an amount that in 2012, is expected to exceed 700,000,000 metric tons. That's between 7 and 8 times as much steel as the USA is expected to produce in 2012!

Swiss endure safe-haven agony from euro flight

Switzerland is fighting a losing battle to stop massive inflows of funds from investors fleeing sovereign risk in the euro area and the rest of the world, raising the risk of a violent spike in Swiss franc if global debt jitters return.

The Gold Bull Will End In A Mania

Investors are worried that if the stock market is going to fall that gold will head lower as well and sentiment has dropped off accordingly. It may be the case that gold would go down if the stock market heads lower, but the truth is that no one knows how gold is going to react in the short-term. It is being accumulated and has been under accumulation for many years.

Bernanke Says Fed Is Prepared to Act as Needed

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said central bankers “remain prepared” to act as needed to aid growth even as they get ready to eventually raise interest rates from almost zero and shrink a record balance sheet.

How to cope with the market's mood swings

Ben Bernanke disappointed markets yesterday. The chairman of the Federal Reserve was pretty cagey about the prospects of any further quantitative easing (QE) or any other form of looser monetary policy. In his six-monthly written testimony to Congress, he said: "we remain prepared to take further policy action as needed."

7.16.2010

Gold ETF Assets May Grow Eight-Fold in Japan in Year, Mitsubishi UFJ Says

Assets held in Japan’s first exchange-traded funds backed by gold and other precious metals may increase eight-fold in a year as investors seek to protect their wealth in the country with the world’s biggest public debt, its largest publicly traded bank said.

Goldman to Pay $550 Million to Settle SEC Suit

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. agreed to pay $550 million and change its business practices to settle U.S. regulatory claims it misled investors in collateralized debt obligations linked to subprime mortgages.

Fed's volte face sends the dollar tumbling

Rarely before have a few coded words in the minutes of the US Federal Reserve caused such an upheaval in the global currency system, or such a sudden flight from the dollar.

The US banking recovery is a sham

There may be plenty of gloom gathering elsewhere. But the moneylenders – or some of them at least – seem to be doing very nicely. For example, US giant JP Morgan Chase has just revealed a staggering 76% jump in its second-quarter profits. So is it safe to buy US bank shares again? No. Those bumper profits are nothing like as good as they appear on the surface. Nor will the figures set to be reported by other US lenders be as good as they first appear.

7.15.2010

Prepare your portfolio for a double dip

Everything's slowing down. US shoppers aren't buying as much stuff. China's expansion is easing up. The Federal Reserve is already getting a little bit twitchy, cutting its growth forecast for the US economy. We're still not heading for a double dip, according to most pundits. But we're getting closer. And as David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff points out, "these same double-dip deniers never saw the recession coming in 2007 to begin with."

Stock Bears Outnumber Bulls for First Time Since April '09

The level of bullish sentiment about the U.S. stock market fell below the level of bearishness for the first time since April 2009, according to a survey of newsletter writers. The proportion of bullish publications tracked by Investors Intelligence trailed bearish ones by 2.2 percentage points, declining to 32.6 percent, the lowest level since March 2009.

Idled Gulf Rigs Head For Africa

As millions were enjoying the World Cup last weekend, powerful engines began churning the waters of the Gulf of Mexico as Diamond Offshore Drilling began pulling its huge floating rig on a 60-day trip to the Republic of Congo.

THE END-GAME AND THE ILLUSORY GOLD BUBBLE

When the end-game began, gold was $35 per ounce. Today, gold is $1200. When the end-game is over, gold will be far higher.

Spain 'relying on short-term funding' as councils go bust

A third of Spain's city councils are in dire straits and may be forced to suspend payments by the end of the year, replicating the woes in the US, where many states are bearing the brunt of fiscal tightening.

European Banks Poised to Win Reprieve on Capital Rules

European banks, rattled by investor uncertainty about their ability to withstand a sovereign-debt crisis, are poised to win a reprieve in Basel, Switzerland, this week as regulators from 27 countries shape new capital rules.

Boston Fed’s Rosengren: Growth Slowing, Deflation Is Emerging Risk

The outlook for U.S. economic growth has dimmed a bit and deflation is emerging as a risk that the Federal Reserve must stand guard against, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. Bloomberg News Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren “If you were to look at the balance of risks and what we could do about those risks, the risk from a downside shock I would view as more of a problem than the risk of an upside shock of inflation or the economy overall,” Mr. Rosengren said in an interview late last week.

7.13.2010

Vuvuzela

As we grew up we often heard the expression “grass grows greenest in the farmer’s footsteps.” Then we heard from Spain: “El oyo de amo engorda el cabello” which (we believe) translates freely into “When the boss is watching, the cattle grow fatter.” And recently we read (from Roman times) “If you want a prosperous farm, sell your town house.” The message is always the same: mind the store, take care of business. And the message applies, or should apply, with equal force to our world of investments.

Fear Index rises to 16-year high

The Fear Index has risen to a 16-year high. As of June 30th, the Fear Index is 2.35%, based on M3 data made available by shadowstats.com.

Mike Kosares: BIS gold swap signifies a threat to Europe, not to gold

Is it just a coincidence that Portugal has (or had) 382 tonnes of gold in reserve and that the amount of gold the Bank for International Settlements recently inventoried via a swap arrangement was 380 tonnes? Let's put 2+2+2+2+2 together here. (Nothing in the gold market is ever simply 2+2.) I don't know how many of you watch the "Pawn Stars" on the History Channel, but if you don't, let me introduce you to the key question asked of anyone who brings something into the store: Do you want to "pawn it" or "sell it"?

Walker's World: Europe's stress tests

The European Central Bank has been pulling out the stops to repair the euro's image problem and in particular to damp down the widespread skepticism over its forthcoming stress tests of 91 of the biggest European banks.

Number of the Week: Euro Zone Debt Is Coming Due

$1.65 trillion: Euro zone bank debt coming due in 2010 and 2011.

John Paulson Socked With $2 Billion In Redemptions At The End Of June.

The air may be coming out of the John Paulson bubble faster than even we predicted this morning. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/john-paulson-socked-with-2-billion-in-redemptions-at-the-end-of-june-2010-7?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Chicago#ixzz0tcbV1gVG

The rating's war?

China better rated than US?

More Americans' credit scores sink to new lows

The credit scores of millions more Americans are sinking to new lows. Figures provided by FICO Inc. show that 25.5 percent of consumers -- nearly 43.4 million people -- now have a credit score of 599 or below, marking them as poor risks for lenders. It's unlikely they will be able to get credit cards, auto loans or mortgages under the tighter lending standards banks now use.

Trending Toward Deflation

Inflation has been falling, but how close are we to deflation? I found myself wondering that after observing John Makin’s combusting coiffure, his prediction that we might see deflation this year.

Here comes the next phase of the UK housing bust

The housing market in Britain seems to be invulnerable. Even the worst post-war recession seen in Britain – with a 6.4% peak-to-trough fall in GDP, even worse than the original estimate of 6.2% – couldn't keep prices down for long. According to The Times, house prices in the UK fell by around 20% from peak (October 2007) to trough (February 2009). Since then, the average price has risen by 15%. That means they've already retraced slightly more than half of the original slump.

7.12.2010

The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt

Edward Chancellor’s masterful 10-page essay on sovereign debt crises past and present should be required reading for anybody seriously interested in the “new normal” and the way that sovereign debt dynamics might play out over the medium-to-long term.

Consumer Spending Contracts as the Great Recession Rolls On

U.S. consumers shed some of their debt for the fourth month in a row in May, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt fell $9.15 billion, or a 4.5% annualized rate, in May to $2.42 trillion. Economists expected a decline. The series is very volatile.

China's forex regulator sees it's role as flexible, not political

China's foreign exchange regulator said Wednesday that its reserves are managed according to market principles, and that concerns it's mulling dumping its U.S. debt holdings are unfounded.

Central Bankers Losing Control

The International Monetary Fund has called on the European Central Bank to prepare fresh emergency action to stabilise debt markets, throwing its weight behind calls for renewed monetary stimulus to offset budget cuts. "Markets are not yet convinced of the central bank's commitment to scaling up purchases if necessary to prevent a further deterioration in market functioning," said the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report.

Federal Reserve weighs steps to offset slowdown in economic recovery

Federal Reserve officials, increasingly concerned over signs the economic recovery is faltering, are considering new steps to bolster growth.

US Dollar's collapse inevitable

Only a heroic optimist would be prepared to ascribe any long-term value at all to the US Dollar

IMF tells Europe to inject more stimulus

he International Monetary Fund has called on the European Central Bank to prepare fresh emergency action to stabilise debt markets, throwing its weight behind calls for renewed monetary stimulus to offset budget cuts.

EMU break-up risks global deflation shock that would dwarf Lehman collapse, warns ING

A full-fledged disintegration of the eurozone would trigger the worst economic crisis in modern history, devastate every country in Europe including Germany, and inflict a deflationary shock on the US. There would be no winners, warns the Dutch bank ING in a new report "Quantifying the Unthinkable".

Sell Bonds, Buy Precious Metals, Rice on Supply Shortages, Jim Rogers Says

Investors should sell bonds and buy commodities like silver and rice as a “refuge” as the world economy may continue having problems, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings said.

Avertible catastrophe

Some are attuned to the possibility of looming catastrophe and know how to head it off. Others are unprepared for risk and even unable to get their priorities straight when risk turns to reality. Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/Avertible+catastrophe/3203808/story.html#ixzz0tVabimH3

Printing money won't save us from the next wave of deflation

Let's assume for the moment that all the talk of a double-dip recession will translate into the real thing. What's likely to happen? Well, another dose of quantitative easing – or money printing as we like to call it – seems the most likely reaction. The anti-austerity crowd will bray "we told you so". Governments will panic in response, anxious not to be accused of driving the economy into a depression. And so the printing press will be warmed up again. And that will probably result in a rebound in asset prices. But can it work in the longer run? Evidence from the past says no. And I'm not just talking about Japan. Quantitative easing has been tried before in the US too…

7.08.2010

Don't be fooled by the good news on shops and banks

Markets had an impressive rally yesterday. The Dow Jones sprinted back above the 10,000 mark, while the S&P 500 leapt to around 1,060. Why? I've used the "more buyers than sellers" crack once too often. But investors were certainly looking for reasons to buy. And they got one. Apparently, US retail sales are going to come in stronger than expected. The International Council of Shopping Centers (not the most high profile research body, I admit) reckons that sales "probably expanded at an average monthly rate of 4%" in the five months since 31 January. That's the biggest gain since 2006. According to Bill Dreher, a Deutsche Bank analyst, sales reports for June will beat expectations and "the positive comparable-sales trend will continue." Sounds impressive. But as always, there's a catch...

The sliding dollar means more bad news for markets

There has been a broad pattern to markets in recent years. As stock and commodity markets have risen, so too have the euro and the pound. The US dollar meanwhile, has fallen. But when the US dollar has rallied, commodities, stocks, the euro and the pound have all fallen. But there are signs this pattern may be changing. What are they and what do they mean?

Gold Demand in China Jumps on Stock Slump, Cooling Measures, Exchange Says

Gold demand in China, the world’s second-largest consumer, gained in the first half as government measures to cool the property market and falling equities spurred investment demand, the Shanghai Gold Exchange said.

China won't dump U.S. Treasuries or pile into gold

China on Wednesday ruled out the "nuclear" option of dumping its vast holdings of U.S. Treasury securities but called on Washington to be a responsible guardian of the dollar.

Gold swap mystery deepens as BIS gets correction from Wall Street Journal

The Wall Street Journal this evening updated and corrected its report about the gold swaps undertaken by the Bank for International Settlements, disclosing an e-mailed statement from the BIS stating that the swaps were with commercial banks, not central banks as the newspaper first reported.

7.07.2010

With BIS gold swap, central banks throw the kitchen sink at gold

Western central banks have begun throwing the kitchen sink at gold, as word broke today of a monster gold swap undertaken by the Bank for International Settlements, which, as GATA noted the other day, long has been a center of surreptitious gold market intervention (see http://www.gata.org/node/8773) and indeed was the lead defendant in GATA consultant Reg Howe's gold price manipulation lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Boston in 2000 (see http://www.goldensextant.com/). The BIS gold swap appears to involve 380 tonnes that likely were sold into the market immediately.

European banks use gold reserves to raise cash

European commercial banks have begun using their holdings of gold to raise cash with the Bank for International Settlements, in a further sign of strains in the money markets on which many rely for funding.

China's property market braced for 30pc drop

Standard Chartered has told clients to prepare for a fall in property prices of up to 30pc in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzen, and other large cities in China as the delayed effects of monetary tightening begin to bite.

With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932

The US workforce shrank by 652,000 in June, one of the sharpest contractions ever. The rate of hourly earnings fell 0.1pc. Wages are flirting with deflation.

Europe’s ‘toothless’ bank tests making matters worse

RBS and other City institutions have warned that Europe’s stress tests for banks are almost useless and may further damage confidence if they fail to cover the risk of large losses on sovereign defaults by Greece and other Club Med states.

Shipping Our Economy, Our Jobs And Our Prosperity To China

As the U.S. economy continues to implode, large American corporations are investing billions upon billions of dollars in China. But all of this investment comes at a price. Over the past several decades, hundreds of factories and manufacturing facilities that would have been constructed in the United States, along with millions of decent paying jobs, have ended up going to China instead where labor is so much cheaper.

7.06.2010

EU clashes with China over trade 'barriers’ to rival firms

China and Europe are entering into a destructive trade war as EU officials vow to “get tough” over China’s bureaucratic barriers against foreign investment and trade.

Bank Balance Sheets Could Torpedo Recovery

Germany's economy is booming thanks to a rapid recovery of global exports. But Europe isn't out of the woods yet. Few know exactly what nasty surprises might be lurking on bank balance sheets across the Continent -- and stress tests might not be enough to reveal them.

Goldman Sachs warns on global economic slowdown

Fresh fears over a global economic slowdown were raised on Saturday after Goldman Sachs' chief economist warned that data from China and the US revealed that any recovery was facing a "challenging period" and that evidence from America was "troubling".

Illinois Stops Paying Its Bills, but Can’t Stop Digging Hole

More broadly, Illinois is caught between blue state convictions about social safety nets and a red state aversion to taxes. For years, the Democratic-controlled legislature has passed budgets that are, in effect, in deficit. Lawmakers routinely skip around the state’s balanced-budget law, with few consequences. (Republicans are near monolithic in voting against any tax increases and borrowings. When one broke ranks to try to keep the pension solvent, he was stripped of a committee position, reducing his pay and pension.)

How does China really view gold?

Chinese officials have been making contrasting statements on how it views gold? What is the true picture?

The shipping index has dropped 50%. What does it mean?

Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index saw its 27th consecutive day of losses. That's the longest continuous slump for five years. The Baltic Dry measures the cost of shipping dry bulk goods – commodities such as iron ore and coal, for example. The index fell off a cliff during the credit crunch in 2008, as credit to finance global trade froze. So what is the current sell-off telling us about the state of the global economy?

7.01.2010

Warning signals of a double-dip recession flash brightly across the world

Global bond markets are flashing warning signals of a sharp slowdown in growth across the world and a possible slide toward a double-dip recession and outright deflation.

Angela Merkel's political woe punctures market euphoria

Fears over the political survival of German Chancellor Angela Merkel sent tremors through European markets late on Wednesday, puncturing the near euphoric mood after a crucial funding operation by the European Central Bank eased doubts over bank stress.

An Old Battlefront Returns in War on Euro

The Euro Crisis Related articles, background features and opinions about this topic. * Print * E-Mail * Feedback 06/30/2010 The Four Horsemen of the Acropolis An Old Battlefront Returns in War on Euro By Michaela Schiessl Photo Gallery: 3 Photos ddp In 1998, four renegade German professors tried to stop the introduction of the euro with a legal challenge in Germany's highest court. Now, 12 years later, they are fighting against a German bailout for Greece -- and this time around, people are listening to them.

Foreclosed Homes Sell at 27% Discount as Supply Grows

Homes in the foreclosure process sold at an average 27 percent discount in the first quarter as almost a third of all U.S. transactions involved properties in some stage of mortgage distress, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

How much further could stock markets fall?

It's been a grim couple of days for global stock markets. Indeed, it's been a pretty bad year so far in fact. The first quarter was fine, but since April markets have struggled. So far in 2010, reports the Financial Times, the FTSE All-World Share Index is down by more than 10%, while safe havens have been the big winners. US treasuries have returned 5.8%. The dollar is up 10.5% on a trade-weighted basis. And gold is one of the top performers, up 13%.

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