6.29.2010

RBS tells clients to prepare for 'monster' money-printing by the Federal Reserve

As recovery starts to stall in the US and Europe with echoes of mid-1931, bond experts are once again dusting off a speech by Ben Bernanke given eight years ago as a freshman governor at the Federal Reserve.

The Third Depression

Recessions are common; depressions are rare. As far as I can tell, there were only two eras in economic history that were widely described as “depressions” at the time: the years of deflation and instability that followed the Panic of 1873 and the years of mass unemployment that followed the financial crisis of 1929-31.

Central Banks Should Weigh Ending Stimulus to Avoid Side Effects, BIS Says

Central banks and governments should consider withdrawing extraordinary measures to avoid skewing investment decisions and delaying companies’ recording of losses, the Bank for International Settlements said.

1983 magazine profile shows BIS constantly intervening in gold market in secret

GATA contribution

Why central banks do care about gold: the connection to interest rates

Several contributions to the above

Why Thursday could be a scary day for European banks

Austerity is the new buzzword. After the G20 meeting at the weekend, markets are braced for governments to cut back. But what's really worrying investors is that central banks are talking about cutting back too. There is increasing talk about removing some of the 'monetary stimulus' pumped in via special liquidity schemes and low interest rates and quantitative easing and the like. And this Thursday may give us a snapshot of exactly what that could mean for markets. Because Thursday is the day when the European Central Bank reviews the terms on around half a trillion euros of the banking sector's overdraft. So what might happen?

6.28.2010

Have BP shares hit rock bottom yet?

The Deepwater Horizon accident has been a terrible catastrophe for everyone in the Gulf of Mexico. But now that shares in BP (LSE: BP/) are crashing and the company has cancelled its dividend, a great many other people are also feeling at least some impact from the disaster. There's even talk of BP filing for bankruptcy. So what does it all mean for investors? And should you still be thinking about buying BP shares?

Geithner says US can 'no longer drive global growth'

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has told the BBC that the world "cannot depend as much on the US as it did in the past".

States of Crisis for 46 Governments Facing Greek-Style Deficits

Californians don’t see much evidence that the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression is coming to an end. Far from rebounding, the Golden State, with a $1.8 trillion economy that’s larger than Russia’s, is sinking deeper into its financial funk. And it’s not alone.

Compromise on Lincoln swaps desk bill seals deal

Lincoln, administration agree on swaps desk compromise

Overhaul of Financial Regulation on Path to Obama’s Desk

The U.S. Congress is on pace to deliver a sweeping re-write of Wall Street’s rules to President Barack Obama by July 4, meeting the deadline lawmakers set for themselves.

Gold investment opportunities abound Market offers many choices, but costs and risks vary

Gold is mighty expensive these days but there are many ways to buy and invest in the precious metal, some of which don't require as much money as you might think.

World's biggest gold coin fetches over 3 million euros

A Spanish precious metals trading company bought the world's largest gold coin for 3.27 million euros ($4.02 million), its exact material worth, from the estate of an insolvent investment firm at a rare auction in Vienna on Friday.

6.25.2010

Will Gold Miners Act Like Stocks or Gold During the Crash?

With stocks collapsing and Gold rallying to new all-time highs in both US Dollars and the Euro, the key question for precious metals investors is: Will gold miners act like stocks or Gold during the Crash?

Banker Who Blew Whistle Over Tax Cheats Seeks Pardon

Bradley Birkenfeld, once a UBS AG banker who handled a $200 million investment for a billionaire client, now makes 12 cents an hour mopping floors at the federal prison in Minersville, Pennsylvania. He told U.S. authorities how UBS bankers came to the U.S. to woo rich Americans, managed $20 billion of their assets, and helped them cheat the Internal Revenue Service.

China's chief auditor warns mounting local government debt a risk to economy

China's chief auditor has warned that high levels of local government debt could derail the country's economy, with some observers suggesting that a number of Chinese provinces are even more fiscally-troubled than Greece.

Merkel Defends Herself Against Criticism from Washington

Does Germany's savings plan threaten to disrupt the fragile economic recovery in Europe and elsewhere in the world? In an interview with a German public broadcaster on Thursday morning, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she had rejected such criticism from US President Barack Obama.

Ben Bernanke needs fresh monetary blitz as US recovery falters

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is waging an epochal battle behind the scenes for control of US monetary policy, struggling to overcome resistance from regional Fed hawks for further possible stimulus to prevent a deflationary spiral.

The US housing horror story is about to get even worse

his week, most of us here in Britain have been kept busy scrutinising the Budget. Working out how much poorer we'll be next year has been a full-time – and rather unpleasant – job.

6.24.2010

Where to now for the pound?

The pound seemed to like George Osborne's emergency Budget. On Tuesday morning it was standing at $1.47. By mid-afternoon yesterday, it was above $1.49. The surprise news that one of the nine members of the Bank of England's interest rate-setting committee had voted for a quarter-point rate rise last month helped, of course. But the fact is, the pound has been rallying since mid-May. That's when news started to leak about the government's austerity plans.

Economists consider tearing down homes to protect housing market

Douglas Duncan, vice president and chief economist for Fannie Mae, raised a provocative idea at a recent meeting of real estate journalists in Austin: Some of the misconceived housing developments built during the boom years might have to be torn down because they don't make financial sense.

Sales of U.S. New Houses Plunge to Lowest Level on Record

Purchases of U.S. new homes fell in May to the lowest level on record after a tax credit expired, showing the market remains dependent on government support.

Looking Behind the Saudi Gold Holdings Increase

Gold prices continue to march higher, hitting a new all-time high near $1,265 this Monday morning in London trading before settling down to the $1,250 to $1260 area. Reportedly, the catalyst to higher gold prices was the revelation that Saudi Arabia's central bank, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) had made a sizable addition to its official gold holdings in early 2008 but only recently chose to report this metal in its official central bank reserve accounts.

A Look At Gibson's Paradox And Gold

Gold went to an all-time nominal high against the dollar on June 21. However, even though we find ourselves in the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, gold has still not reached a REAL, inflation-adjusted high.

Euphoria cools over Chinese moves to weaken yuan

Oil prices and risky assets across the world have tumbled after China intervened to weaken the yuan, sending a clear signal to investors that the country's shift to currency flexibility is a two-way street.

6.22.2010

The TRUE inflation-adjusted price of gold

There is good reason to think that gold’s best days might still lie ahead. These charts show the degree to which it is undervalued based on the historic rate of inflation. The first shows the inflation-adjusted price using the current Bureau of Labor Standard’s (BLS) consumer price index. The second shows the inflation adjusted price using the same statistical model the BLS did in 1980 -- data still tracked by Shadow Government Statistics (SGS) without the current CPI’s hedonic adjustments.

China in pre-G20 climbdown over yuan

China said yesterday that it would allow a more flexible yuan, bringing to an end its controversial 23-month peg to the US dollar which has been accused of keeping Chinese exports artificially cheap.

Lord Rothschild fund joins World Gold Council to put £12.5m into BullionVault

An investment fund backed by Lord Rothschild has joined the World Gold Council to put £12.5m into BullionVault, the online gold investment platform.

Gold reclaims its currency status as the global system unravels

We already know that the eurozone money markets seized up violently in early May as incipient bank runs spread from Greece to Portugal and Spain, threatening the first big sovereign default of our era.

Gold at record after Saudi reserves double

Gold prices hit on Monday a fresh record high of almost $1,265 a troy ounce following the revelation that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is sitting on more than twice as much gold as previously thought, according to new estimates.

The gold standard: generator and protector of jobs

The abandonment of the gold standard in 1971 is closely tied to the massive unemployment the industrialized world has suffered in recent years; Mexico, even with a lower level of industrialization than the developed countries, has also lost jobs due to the closing of industries; in recent years, the creation of new jobs in productive activities has been anemic at best.

The Well from Hell... And What They're Not Saying

There is something primordial about BP's quest for oil in the Gulf of Mexico. It's an Icarus-like story of super-ambition; of reaching too far, delving too deep.

Medvedev Promotes Ruble as World Reserve Currency to Cut Dollar Dominance

Russia wants the ruble to be one of the world’s reserve currencies as President Dmitry Medvedev renews his push to reduce the dollar’s dominance and make Moscow a global financial hub.

Three reasons why gold may be due a correction

After moving above $1,260 an ounce on Friday afternoon, gold closed the week at $1,256. It's a new record. And it's no surprise.

6.18.2010

75% of modified home loans will redefault

Most borrowers who have had their mortgages modified through a government-sponsored program will redefault within 12 months, according to a report released Wednesday.

Banks are lending again

Banks are lending again. After many months of sitting on their hands while trying to repair their over-leveraged balance sheets, banks are making new loans. They also continue to buy US government paper, though those purchases tapered off over the past month.

ECB must buy 'hundred of billions' of bonds to tame Europe's debt crisis

Fitch Ratings has warned that it may take massive asset purchases by the European Central Bank to prevent Europe's sovereign debt crisis escalating out of control.

Marc Faber: "I Buy Gold, I Don't Know What Else To Buy"

Another fantastic interview and some typically outspoken observations from everyone's favorite Doom and Gloomer:"I think that governments have become like a cancer, they have expanded in the financial system...The biggest problem is too much intervention. Whatever the government touches is usually done worse than in the private sector.

'The Hounding of Spain Is Absurd'

Spain and the European Union are rushing to quash rumors that Madrid plans to ask for a Greek-style bailout. The German press on Wednesday is surprisingly positive about Spain's attempt to grapple with its problems.

Spanish debt wilts amid €250bn rescue plan confusion

European debt markets remain under high stress on persistent reports that Spain is in secret talks with EU officials and the International Monetary Fund for a support package of up to €250bn (£208bn), the largest rescue in history.

Fed Study Suggests Rates Will Stay at Record Lows Until ’12

Given high unemployment and low inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to wait until 2012 before it starts to raise interest rates, a new Fed research paper states.

The chart that tells you where the US economy is heading

The United States is still by a long way the biggest single economic powerhouse on the planet. It represents almost a quarter of global GDP. American citizens account for a sixth of the world's total consumer spending. In short, it still delivers far more bang for its buck than any other country. Where it goes, we normally follow.

6.16.2010

Spain plays high-stakes poker game with Germany as borrowing costs surge

Spain has upped the ante in a high-stakes poker game with Germany, pushing for the release of EU stress test results for major banks in a move that risks precipitiating a dramatic escalation of Europe's financial crisis.

Hyperinflation Watch - June 15, 2010

The latest financial results of the US government show that it continues to spend and borrow recklessly. As a consequence, there has been no improvement in the hyperinflationary outlook for the US dollar.

Central GoldTrust Announces Proposed Offering

Central GoldTrust (TSX:GTU.U - News)(TSX:GTU.UN - News)(AMEX:GTU - News) of Ancaster, Ontario announced today that it plans to offer Units of Central GoldTrust to the public in Canada (except Quebec) and in the United States under its existing U.S.$800,000,000 base shelf prospectus dated June 8, 2009 and filed with the securities commissions in each of the provinces and territories of Canada, except Quebec, and under the multijurisdictional disclosure system in the United States pursuant to a proposed underwritten offering by CIBC. Central GoldTrust will only proceed with the offering if it is non-dilutive to the net asset value of the Units owned by the existing Unitholders of Central GoldTrust.

Million dollar face value gold coin goes on sale by auction June 25th

One of the world's most valuable solid gold coins - a million dollar Maple Leaf - is being sold by auction in Austria in two weeks time and is expected to sell at a big premium to its face value.

Why Europe needs to kill off its zombie banks

Markets are back in 'risk on' mode. It's what you'd expect after the carnage of May.

6.15.2010

India to inject $1.32 billion to 5 state-run banks

The Indian government will inject 62.11 billion rupees into five state-run banks to help meet their capital and lending needs, a government statement said on Saturday.

Walker's World: The euro makes enemies

Relations between the economic policy-makers of Europe and the United States are even worse in private than they appear to be in public, as Europe heads for massive spending cuts and austerity while the United States keeps trying to stimulate growth.

Moody's cuts Greek rating to junk

Moody's cut Greece's credit rating to junk status on Monday over risks to an EU/IMF bailout package, highlighting persisting doubts over the country's ability to exit a severe debt crisis.

A signal from the stock market

The stock market is often acclaimed for its forecasting ability. Stock prices peak long before the downturn in economic activity that generally results in a recession and a prolonged decline in the stock market. Then after this lull in the economy, the bear market low in stock prices leads by several months the upturn in economic activity.

Fannie-Freddie Fix at $160 Billion With $1 Trillion Worst Case

The cost of fixing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage companies that last year bought or guaranteed three-quarters of all U.S. home loans, will be at least $160 billion and could grow to as much as $1 trillion after the biggest bailout in American history.

State Plan Makes Fund Both Borrower and Lender

Gov. David A. Paterson and legislative leaders have tentatively agreed to allow the state and municipalities to borrow nearly $6 billion to help them make their required annual payments to the state pension fund.

Gold’s 30% Surge Puzzles Bernanke, Not This Guy: William Pesek

Alan Greenspan had his conundrum. Now, Ben Bernanke has his enigma. The behavior of long-term interest rates had the former Federal Reserve chairman scratching his head. It’s gold that puzzles the current Fed chief. Damned if Bernanke and his fellow central bankers can explain the surge by a metal John Maynard Keynes once dismissed as a “barbaric relic.”

6.14.2010

17 Reasons to Own Gold

Reasons to Own Gold

Banks With State Debt Ignore Not-If-But-When Default

European banking shares indicate a Greek debt default may be just a matter of time.

US faces 'severe' losses on AIG, Commission warns

The United States's $182.5bn (£124bn) rescue of troubled insurer American International Group (AIG) at the height of the financial crisis could have been avoided, an influential Congressional commission has found.

Rob McEwen: Looking Ahead of the Curve

Rob McEwen, whose Midas touch in mining has been as transformational as anyone's, sat down recently for this exclusive, wide-ranging interview with The Gold Report. Hoping we manage to avoid the "darkest hour" he envisions, he describes fearsome parallels between the Weimar Republic of the late '20s and early '30s to the United States of today. Fast-forwarding to the future, he also explores a few of the things the mining industry might do to start making itself invisible in terms of environmental impact.

China says gold market too small for asset allocation

The gold market is too small, illiquid and volatile to be suitable for asset allocation, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said in its annual report published on Thursday.

U.S. asset managers worried Obama could confiscate gold

Anecdotal evidence suggests some major U.S. asset managers prefer to hold gold outside the U.S. for fear of confiscation in an echo of Roosevelt's 1933 decree.

Soros Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis

Billionaire investor George Soros said “we have just entered Act II” of the crisis as Europe’s fiscal woes worsen and governments are pressured to curb budget deficits that may push the global economy back into recession.

German-Franco call for EU ban on short selling

Germany and France have joined forces to call for a swift, European Union-wide ban on the short selling of some shares and government debt.

Gold Running in Short Supply

Interview with Eric Sprott, CEO and chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset Management in Toronto

Risks to global economy have 'risen significantly', top IMF official warns

The risks to a robust global recovery have 'risen significantly' as many governments struggle with debt, a leading official from the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Women Prefer Men Holding State Bonds, Japan Ad Says

Japanese women are seeking men who invest in government bonds, according to an advertisement being run by the Ministry of Finance.

Europe Looks to Break US Ratings Monopoly

Few doubt that US ratings agencies contributed greatly to the global financial crisis. Europe is now worried that the euro could also fall victim to credit downgrades -- and is exploring the possibility of creating its own ratings agency.

Bernanke Puzzled by Gold Rally

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says he’s a bit puzzled by surging gold prices. The 30% rally from a year ago, on top of gains in previous years, might be interpreted as a loud signal from markets that big inflation pressures are building in the U.S. Gold is seen by many investors as a hedge against inflation risk.

Europeans believing in gold

Gold hit a new intra-day high in U.S. dollars yesterday, but has been doing so in the European currencies for some weeks now.

What happened to the "death of the dollar?"

William Engdahl, The Gods of Money Pt..2 - US fights to maintain dollar hegemony at expense of economy

Pimco’s Crescenzi Sees ‘Endpoint’ in Devaluations

Nations have reached a “Keynesian endpoint” as exhausted balance sheets leave policy makers with few options to bolster economic growth, according to Anthony Crescenzi, an investor at Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s largest bond-fund manager.

Goldman Sachs accused of disrupting FCIC's probe into financial crisis

Goldman Sachs has been accused of “deliberately and disruptively” refusing to work with the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) after employing delaying tactics and attempting to inundate the panel with millions of pages of documents.

Ten tips for doing Mideast business

Proceeding from a history of thousands of years linking East and West, today’s Middle East is in transition, adapting to shifts in global commercial power.

6.03.2010

JP Morgan hit with largest fine in FSA's history

The Financial Service Authority on Thursday sent out a major warning to City investment banks to tighten up the way they look after their clients' money as JP Morgan received the largest fine the regulator has ever handed down, for putting as much as £16bn of customers' funds in to the wrong bank account.

Iran to sell 45 bln euros, buy dollars, gold -Xinhua

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE65111120100602?type=marketsNews

NY Nearly Goes Broke Again, Delays Paying Bills

New York state delayed paying $2.5 billion of bills as a short-term way of staying solvent but its cash crunch could get even worse in August and September, Budget Director Robert Megna said on Tuesday.

South African gold output falls hard

IN an all too familiar announcement in recent years, the South African Chamber of Mines reported the country's first quarter gold production fell 15% quarter-on-quarter, extending the downward slide in output.

Gold a ‘Good Choice’ for Boosting Global Use of Yuan (Update2)

China’s trade in yuan-denominated gold investment products moves the currency closer toward global acceptance and the country should develop more of them, a central bank official said.

Dubai fears reignite on $1.25bn debt payment delay

Dubai's most powerful private equity company, which owns stakes in Travelodge, Merlin Entertainment and DaimlerChrysler, has been forced to delay the repayment of a $1.25bn (£860m) tranche of debt in a shock move that has renewed fears in the emirate's financial stability.

Is Europe heading for a meltdown?

This financial crisis is worse than the sub-prime crash of 2008 because the sums are so much bigger and it is governments that are in dire straits. Edmund Conway explains the dangers.

Funds seek Midas touch with miners

Top hedge fund stock pickers have extended their bets on gold, adding gold mining stocks to their investments in the precious metal.

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