4.28.2010

ECB may have to turn to 'nuclear option' to prevent Southern European debt collapse

The European Central Bank may soon have to invoke emergency powers to prevent the disintegration of southern European bond markets, with ominous signs of investor flight from Spain and Italy.

Cuts to Debt Rating Stir Anxiety in Europe

Greece’s credit rating was lowered to junk status Tuesday by a leading credit agency, a decision that rocked financial markets and deepened fears that a debt crisis in Europe could spiral out of control.

10 Things You Don’t Know (or were misinformed) About the GS Case

By Barry Ritholtz - April 23rd, 2010, 7:15AM I have been watching with a mixture of awe and dismay some of the really bad analysis, sloppy reporting, and just unsupported commentary about the GS case. I put together this list based on what I know as a lawyer, a market observer, a quant and someone with contacts within the SEC. (Note: This represents my opinions, and no one elses).

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Council Told to Consider Bankruptcy

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which has missed $6 million in debt payments since Jan. 1, should consider seeking Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, City Controller Dan Miller told a three-hour special committee hearing.

The 'Fed model' is warning us to be careful

"Stocks have had a fantastic run-up. The rally of the past year or so has been nothing short of spectacular. But now it's time for investors to be cautious and pull in their horns. "Come on", you say. "Pundits have been predicting a crash since the start of the rally. Why should we pay any attention now?"

4.27.2010

Lessons of History...

There are some advantages to getting older, one of which is, if you are lucky, that past memories can help today’s analysis. Not always, and usually with a few twists. But today we will bet that the gold market is similar in many ways to 1972.

Apparently without announcement, IMF sold 5.6 tonnes in February

The Reuters story below reports the World Gold Council's announcement of a sale in February of 5.6 tonnes of gold by the International Monetary Fund. The WGC is quoted as having discovered the sale in a recently published IMF statistical report. As far as we can determine, the IMF itself has issued no press release or other public statement about the February sales. So the identity of the buyers apparently cannot yet be determined.

Gold Run Not Over: Marc Faber

The rising price of gold is far from over since paper money will continue to lose value, according to Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

Venezuela eyes gold-mines nationalization: reports

Gold mine concessions in Venezuela may be nationalized, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Sunday, according to various media reports.

Will Goldman Sachs prove greed is God?

The investment bank's cult of self-interest is on trial against the whole idea of civilisation – the collective decision by all of us not to screw each other over even if we can

FDIC shuts down 7 banks in Illinois

Regulators on Friday shut down seven banks in Illinois, putting the number of U.S. bank failures this year at 57.

Merkel says Greek bailout should proceed only if euro in jeopardy

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's request for an EU-IMF relief package worth €45 billion met resistance from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who said aid should only be offered if the stability of the euro were at stake.

Why Greece could trigger another financial crisis

We all know the story of US subprime by now. Lord knows it's been trotted out enough. Bundles of home loans, dodgy borrowers, dodgy lenders, cunning investment bankers, amoral ratings agencies – it was a sorry tale of greed, stupidity, and smoke and mirrors. But it all boils down to this. Investors thought they were buying one thing (an AAA-rated security), when in fact they were buying quite another (a bundle of debts that could never be repaid in a million years).

4.24.2010

Weakness Begets Weakness: From banks to sovereigns to banks

The Greek debt situation has been an interesting case study for students of the sovereign bond markets. If there’s a lesson to be learned from Greece’s experience thus far it’s that sovereign bailouts are far more complicated than bank bailouts.

Fitch warns of debt 'shock' for Japan

Fitch Ratings has warned that Japan's sovereign debt is rising to ominously high levels as the workforce shrinks and deflation grinds deeper, while the government's reserve assets may prove unusable for defence in a funding crisis.

Escalating Greek default fears rock Europe's debt markets

Greece's debt crisis has reached a dramatic crescendo after the EU revealed that the country's debt and deficit figures are even worse than feared and leading banks began to talk openly of debt-restructuring.

Budget crisis puts LA court system at risk

The nation's largest court system is in the midst of a painful budget crisis that has shut down courtrooms and disrupted everything from divorce and custody proceedings to traffic ticket disputes.

Goldman Executives Are Expected to Testify Before Senate Panel

The government’s case against Goldman Sachs is about to get its first public airing, in what could be a gripping preview of the legal battle to come.

4.22.2010

Treasury May Sell Record Amount of Notes, Primary Dealers Say

The U.S. Treasury may sell an unprecedented $128 billion in notes next week as expectations increase that the amount of securities auctioned by the government is peaking with the economy strengthening.

Gold: safe haven from shrinking sterling and rising inflation

Savers worried about rising inflation, shrinking sterling and dismal returns on bank deposits are seeking a safe haven in gold.

Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin

Global systemic crisis / USA-UK - The explosive duo of the second half of 2010: Summer 2010 - The Bank of England battle / Winter 2010 - The Fed at risk of bankruptcy

ECB simultaneously confirms and denies currency intervention

The Reuters story appended here is typical of both Western central banking and mainstream financial press reporting and particularly of reporting about gold, insofar as the story blandly quotes the European Central Bank as asserting that it did not intervene in the currency markets in 2009 even as the story prominently describes a currency intervention acknowledged by the bank.

China should use more reserves to buy gold-researcher

China should use more of its massive foreign exchange reserves to buy gold to support its aim of raising the international role of the yuan currency, a senior government researcher said on Saturday.

For Goldman, a Bet’s Stakes Keep Growing

The biggest victim among investors, the S.E.C. complaint said, was the Royal Bank of Scotland, which inherited a loss of $841 million after it took over the Dutch bank ABN Amro. According to a person briefed on the matter, the Royal Bank, now controlled by the British government, is studying the documents but is not ready to decide whether to try to recoup money from Goldman.

Morgan Stanley fears German exit from EMU

Morgan Stanley has warned that the Greek debt crisis is setting off a chain of events that may prompt German withdrawal from the eurozone, with grim implications for investors caught off-guard.

SEC accuses Goldman Sachs of defrauding investors

The government on Friday accused Wall Street's most powerful firm of fraud, saying Goldman Sachs & Co. sold mortgage investments without telling the buyers that the securities were crafted with input from a client who was betting on them to fail.

Saint-Etienne Swaps Explode as Financial Weapons Ambush Europe

The worst global financial crisis in 70 years arrived in Saint-Etienne this month, as embedded financial obligations began to blow up.

More pain coming: State budget gap is $89 billion

States will have to find a way to close an $89 billion budget gap before their 2011 fiscal year begins in July, according to a report from the National Conference of State Legislatures released Wednesday.

Ron Paul Grills Bernanke On The Massive Expansion To The IMF's New Arrangement To Borrow

The IMF massively expanded its last resort bailout facility (NAB) by half a trillion dollars,

IMF Prepares For Global Cataclysm, Expands Backup Rescue Facility By Half A Trillion For "Contribution To Global Financial Stability"

The IMF has just announced that it is expanding its New Arrangement to Borrow (NAB) multilateral facility from its existing $50 billion by a whopping $500 billion (SDR333.5 billion), to $550 billion.

4.21.2010

Markets could be derailed again, warns Soros

Railway porter-turned-billionaire financier George Soros delivered a stark warning last night that the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis.

Shareholders hold UBS ex-bosses accountable

The battered reputation of UBS has been further dented after shareholders voted not to absolve some of the bank’s former leaders of blame for its near collapse.

Washington Mutual created 'mortgage time bomb,' Senate panel says

The failed bank made subprime loans it knew were likely to go bad and then packaged them into risky securities, investigators say.

Grice: "What Is The Difference Between Greece And Rest Of The OECD? Only That It Is Small Enough To Be Bailed Out"

Greece misrepresented the true state of its finances, it has enormous off-balance sheet liabilities, it is expected to run a double-digit budget deficit to GDP this year, it has a heavy bond issuance schedule this year – it was bound to have a crisis at some point wasn’t it? But what’s the difference between Greece and the rest of the OECD? Only that it is small enough to be bailed out ….

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Rise 16% as Bank Seizures Set Record

Foreclosure filings in the U.S. rose 16 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier and bank seizures hit a record as lenders stepped up action against delinquent homeowners, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

Record gold prices ‘unsustainable’

The current price of gold is unsustainable in the long term and prices will have to fall to stimulate demand in the jewellery sector, the precious metals consultancy GFMS has said.

PROFESSOR FEKETE AND THE ARMAGEDDON SIGNAL

When the end comes, it will be a surprise even to those who expect it

Legal threat, ambiguity cloud Greek aid deal

Investor doubts, a German legal threat and persistent confusion over the terms of aid perforated Greece's euro zone parachute Wednesday, pushing borrowing costs up.

Euphoria over Greek rescue fades as first cracks appear

Euphoria over Greek rescue fades as first cracks appear Euphoria over a joint EU-IMF rescue deal for Greece worth €45bn (£39.8bn) has given way to caution after angry reactions in Germany and continued concerns among bond investors that any bail-out merely delays the day of reckoning.

4.10.2010

EU agrees on Greek rescue terms as Fitch lowers credit rating

Euro zone officials say they have agreed on the terms of emergency loans to help Greece overcome its worsening debt crisis moments after Fitch ratings agency cut the country's credit rating, citing further fiscal challenges.

The Coming European Debt Wars EU Countries sinking into Depression

Government debt in Greece is just the first in a series of European debt bombs that are set to explode. The mortgage debts in post-Soviet economies and Iceland are more explosive. Although these countries are not in the Eurozone, most of their debts are denominated in euros. Some 87% of Latvia’s debts are in euros or other foreign currencies, and are owed mainly to Swedish banks, while Hungary and Romania owe euro-debts mainly to Austrian banks. So their government borrowing by non-euro members has been to support exchange rates to pay these private-sector debts to foreign banks, not to finance a domestic budget deficit as in Greece.

Sovereign debt crisis at 'boiling point', warns Bank for International Settlements

The Bank for International Settlements does not mince words. Sovereign debt is already starting to cross the danger threshold in the United States, Japan, Britain, and most of Western Europe, threatening to set off a bond crisis at the heart of the global economy.

Gold hits record high for British investors

The price of gold has risen to an all-time high in sterling and euro terms.

Why the Greek rescue isn’t going to plan

It should be apparent to all by now: despite the rhetoric out of some European capitals, the Greek rescue package is not going according to plan.

China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble, Chanos Says (Update1)

China’s property market is a bubble that may burst by as early as this year, according to hedge fund manager James Chanos.

Art Cashin: 30-Year Auction Conspiracy Theories

After a weak start Thursday, stocks started gaining ground. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, offered his insights to CNBC.

ECB-Gold reserves up by 19.8 bln euros after revision

Gold and gold receivables held by euro zone central banks were worth 286.699 billion euros at the end of the first quarter, the European Central Bank said on Thursday, after a quarterly revaluation added 19.8 billion euros to its value.

Jim Rickards: U.S. could be solvent again with gold at $5,500

Writing today at The Daily Caller, Jim Rickards, senior managing director of market intelligence for the consulting and research firm Omnis Inc. in McLean, Virginia, and former general counsel for the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund, suggests that solvency could be restored to the U.S. government and strength to the U.S dollar if gold was revalued to the neighborhood of $5,500 per ounce. The alternative, Rickards writes, may be only the hyperinflating away of unpayable U.S. debts.

SEC may be creeping ahead of CFTC toward market transparency

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may attach identification codes to high-frequency traders so the agency can better track transactions that account for more than 60 percent of American stock volume.

Stephen King: A lesson in public finances history

Governments cannot increase borrowings indefinitely. Someone has to take the pain

California's $500-billion pension time bomb

The state of California's real unfunded pension debt clocks in at more than $500 billion, nearly eight times greater than officially reported.

Of course Sprott can't buy IMF gold: There isn't any!

"We spoke with Alistair Thomson, external relations officer at the IMF, who cleared up the matter for us. Here's the breakdown of what he told us: "The IMF is selling gold only though a qualified agent. There is only one of these agents at the moment and due to the nature of the gold market, they won't reveal who or what that agent is."

Collapse predicted as housing prices continue to soar

Predictions have flooded the Internet in China this week about the country's runaway property market collapsing in 2011.

L.A. to Run Out of Cash in a Month, Controller Says (Update1)

Los Angeles will run out of cash on May 5, city Controller Wendy Greuel said today in a release in which she requested a $90 million transfer of reserve funds to pay bills.

Paranoids have enemies, radical gold bugs have Wall Street

Paranoids notoriously have enemies, but sometimes they have friends too. Long-derided financial conspiracy theories are finally being reported in the mainstream media. Could be ominous.

Lihir Gold rejects A$9.2bn Newcrest bid

Lihir Gold, the Australian miner, on Thursday rejected an A$9.2bn (US$8.4bn) takeover offer from Newcrest Mining, the country’s top gold miner, thwarting its plan to create the world’s fourth-biggest gold producer

4.02.2010

Regulator seeks to rein in energy market trading by big Wall Street firms

The nation's commodities regulator is proposing to limit the vast amounts of oil, natural gas and other vital goods the world's biggest investment firms can buy and sell, seeking to eliminate the unfettered access these companies have had to energy markets for 20 years.

Fed Reveals Bear Stearns Assets It Swallowed in Firm’s Rescue

After months of litigation and political scrutiny, the Federal Reserve yesterday ended a policy of secrecy over its Bear Stearns Cos. bailout.

A “New Dynamic” in the Gold Market

The shorts in gold – and particularly the shorts in silver – felt some pain today. Gold climbed $11.80 to close on the Comex at $1125.10, a 1.1% gain for the day. Silver did nearly twice as well, up 2.1% for the day and ending at $17.876, the highest in ten weeks. The gold/silver ratio fell to 62.9 from 63.6 the day before.

U.K. Royal Mint First-Quarter Gold Output Slips 50%

The U.K.’s Royal Mint, established in the 13th century, said first-quarter gold coin production shrank 50 percent.

Irish Banks Need $43 Billion on ‘Appalling’ Lending

Ireland’s banks need $43 billion in new capital after “appalling” lending decisions left the country’s financial system on the brink of collapse.

State Debt Woes Grow Too Big to Camouflage

California, New York and other states are showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink — budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes, and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and harder to pay.

March Records Fastest Ever CMBS Delinquency Deterioration In History According To TREPP

On top of the previously announced record delinquency rate for Fannie, here comes some even worse news out of commercial real estate, which together with record high downtown vacancy rates, should be enough to push all REITs to 1052 week highs tomorrow. RealPoint has just released its March CMBS delinquency data, according to which delinquencies hit an all time high 6%. Not to be ignored, according to TREPP this number is even worse, at nearly 8%, after the single biggest monthly spike in 30 day + delinquencies.

UK Treasury Relases FOIA On Gordon Brown's 1998 Gold Sale, Catches Tony Blair Lying, Questions US Treasury's Good Delivery Standards

One of the bigger stories in the UK over the past several days, has been the increasing pressure on Prime Minister Gordon Brown to justify his sale of 395 tons of gold in 17 auctions in the period from 1998 through 2002, when Brown was Chancellor of the Exchequer, a role identical to the one Tim Geithner now performs in the US as Treasury Secretary.

Deceit, secrecy surround British gold sales as records are pried loose

Today's story from the Daily Mail in London, appended, shows what a pinch the British government and other gold market-rigging governments are in. They are forced to conceal information and cannot explain why their selling gold at lousy prices was actually a great success of policy -- a matter of sustaining the value of their own currencies and government bonds. Let those who deny the gold price suppression scheme explain the terrified secrecy around Western central bank gold reserves. Indeed, let them put to a central bank even one critical question about gold and then wonder aloud when they don't get an answer. Until they do, they can be presumed to be intellectually dishonest.

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